What's happened
AIPAC's super PAC spent over $2 million targeting moderate Democrat Tom Malinowski in New Jersey, aiming to weaken him over Israel aid policies. Instead, the effort appears to have helped progressive candidate Analilia Mejia, who criticizes Israel's Gaza actions, win the primary amid shifting Democratic views on Israel support.
What's behind the headline?
The strategy of AIPAC and UDP reveals a miscalculation rooted in assumptions about voter priorities. By spending heavily on negative ads targeting Malinowski's domestic votes, they underestimated the growing progressive opposition to unconditional US support for Israel, especially amid the Gaza war. The campaign's focus on domestic issues, rather than Israel, inadvertently aligned with the views of many Democratic voters who now see unconditional aid as problematic. This backfiring underscores a broader shift: pro-Israel lobbying groups risk alienating the Democratic base if they continue to prioritize dark money and aggressive tactics. The victory of Mejia, who openly criticizes Israel's actions and calls for a Gaza ceasefire, signals a potential realignment in Democratic politics, where support for Israel is increasingly scrutinized. The outcome suggests that AIPAC's influence may diminish as younger, more progressive voters demand a reevaluation of US foreign policy, especially in the Middle East. The next steps will likely involve more cautious engagement from pro-Israel groups, recognizing that their traditional tactics could deepen divisions within the Democratic Party and harm their broader influence.
What the papers say
The coverage from Al Jazeera highlights the internal conflict within pro-Israel lobbying efforts, emphasizing how AIPAC's aggressive spending has backfired by empowering candidates critical of Israel's Gaza policies. The Times of Israel underscores UDP's willingness to continue such tactics, aiming to block candidates opposing unconditional aid. Politico and the New York Times provide critical perspectives, noting the widespread discontent among Democrats with AIPAC's approach and the potential long-term consequences for bipartisan support. These contrasting views illustrate a growing divide: while AIPAC aims to maintain influence through dark money, critics argue this strategy damages its reputation and alienates the very voters it seeks to sway.
How we got here
The race in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District was heavily influenced by AIPAC's efforts to sway the primary against candidates perceived as insufficiently supportive of Israel. Malinowski, a supporter of conditional aid to Israel, faced a significant ad campaign from UDP, linked to AIPAC, which focused on domestic issues rather than Israel directly. The primary reflects broader Democratic debates over US-Israel relations amid the Gaza conflict and changing voter attitudes.
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