Midterms Shape Trump’s Final Two Years

What's happened

The midterm elections are shaping the final years of Donald Trump’s term. Republicans defend majorities in Congress while Democrats seek gains. Early voting and record spending highlight the intensity of the race as voters head to the polls on November 3.

What's behind the headline?

Brief

• The story centers on how midterms determine control of Congress and possibly futures for Trump’s presidency.
• The drumbeat is heavy spending and high turnout, signaling heightened anxiety about policy direction.
• The real question is who can convert turnout into a governing coalition in the House and Senate.

What to watch

• Which party wins the balance of power in the Senate and House will set the legislative trajectory for 2027.
• State-level contests will shape administration of education, taxation and elections.
• Early voting trends may forecast turnout patterns and party enthusiasm going into the election.

Forecast

• Expect continued high ad spending and targeted campaigning in battleground states. The outcome will likely prompt White House course corrections if support falters.

How we got here

Voters are deciding control of Congress in the 2026 midterm elections. With all House seats and 35 Senate seats up, outcomes will influence Trump’s policy agenda and the balance of power in Washington. Key battlegrounds include Texas, Ohio and Michigan, where spending has surged and donors are backing candidates and PACs.

Our analysis

Al Jazeera: AdImpact data on spending; Guardian and The New Arab coverage on race dynamics and candidate positions; The Guardian outlines the procedural stakes in Congress. Quotes and data are drawn from reporting across outlets to illustrate the breadth of the race.

Go deeper

• Which races are most critical for controlling Congress?
• How might the results influence local policy in your state?

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