Ceasefire plan is stalling

What's happened

Nickolay Mladenov has told the UN Security Council that implementation of the US-led Board of Peace Gaza roadmap has stalled because Hamas has refused to disarm and Israel is maintaining control of roughly 60% of Gaza. Daily strikes and constrained aid are persisting, reconstruction finance is drying up, and diplomacy is not completing the transition to the second phase.

What's behind the headline?

What is happening

• The Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov has presented to the UN that the truce process is paralysed because Hamas has not accepted verified decommissioning and Israel is continuing operations and control over large parts of Gaza.
• Humanitarian conditions are worsening: aid flows are remaining constrained and Israeli strikes are continuing during the truce, killing civilians and undermining reconstruction plans.

Why this is important now

• The stalemate is turning into a lasting status quo: a divided Gaza with two million people living under partial military control and under-resourced humanitarian services will become entrenched unless the parties change course.
• Reconstruction donors will withhold finance while weapons remain in place; that will halt rebuilding and trap displaced people in tents and rubble.

Who is driving the dynamic

• The Board of Peace (chaired by the US) is pressing for a phased disarmament linked to Israeli withdrawal and international stabilisers. Mladenov is publicly framing Hamass refusal as the principal obstacle.
• Hamas is publicly rejecting that framing, arguing Israel is violating commitments, blocking crossings and preventing reconstruction materials.
• Israel is maintaining expanded territorial control (reported around 60%) and is continuing targeted strikes to prevent perceived threats.

Likely near-term outcomes

• Political: Diplomacy will remain stalled; mediators will continue shuttle diplomacy but the second phase will not advance unless one side alters its position.
• Humanitarian: Aid and reconstruction will remain limited; civilian suffering will increase and displacement will persist.
• Security: The status quo will increase the risk of renewed large-scale hostilities if either side decides the stalemate is unsustainable.

Bottom line

If disarmament is not verified and reciprocal steps are not implemented, Gaza will become a semi-permanent divided territory with no reconstruction financing and persistent insecurity. That will increase pressure for either renewed military action or a prolonged international stabilisation presence, depending on future diplomatic leverage.

How we got here

A US-brokered ceasefire has been in effect since 10 October 2025, creating a Board of Peace to oversee Gaza's transition. The first phase exchanged captives for detainees; the second phase requires Hamas decommissioning, Israeli withdrawal and reconstruction funding. Progress has been stalled for months as both sides trade accusations.

Our analysis

The Board of Peace report and Mladenovs UN address are the throughline in coverage. Reuters and The Times of Israel quote Mladenov saying "the risk is that the deteriorating status quo becomes permanent  a divided Gaza, Hamas holding military and administrative control over 2 million people across less than half the territory." Reuters and The Times of Israel both note his assessment that "Hamas' refusal to hand over weapons and relinquish control was the 'principal obstacle' to implementation," and that "reconstruction financing will not follow where weapons have not been laid down." Hamass rebuttal is documented in The New Arab and The New Arabs earlier report, where spokesman Hazem Qassem calls Mladenovs comments an attempt to "pressure" Hamas and accuses the Board of adopting "the Israeli narrative." The New Arab quotes Hamas saying it is "ready to immediately and fully hand over governance to the National Committee," while also blaming Israel for blocking crossings and preventing materials from entering Gaza. Independent outlets (Al Jazeera, AP, New York Times) and The Times of Israel provide on-the-ground detail about continuing strikes and Israeli orders to evacuate areas, citing Gaza health officials and Israeli military statements. Al Jazeera cites ACLED's finding that Israeli attacks increased in April, and Gaza health ministry figures that several hundred Palestinians have been killed since the ceasefire began. The Times of Israel and Arab News record Israeli officials, including Benjamin Netanyahu, confirming expanded control (around 60%) and reporting recent targeted strikes and evacuations. Together the sources show a consistent factual frame: Mladenov and the Board of Peace are blaming Hamas' refusal to disarm as the main barrier; Hamas is accusing Israel of violating the agreement and of blocking reconstruction; Israeli statements and reported operations indicate continued control and strikes. Readers should consult Reuters for the concise summary of Mladenov's UN remarks, The New Arab for

Go deeper

• What exactly would the second phase require from Hamas and Israel to start reconstruction?
• How is donor reluctance to finance reconstruction changing the Board of Peace's approach?
• What monitoring or verification mechanism is being proposed to confirm decommissioning?

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