What's happened
Early mail ballots have surged in California ahead of the June 2 primary, with Republicans leading in early returns and Democrats tightening in second place. Data from Political Data Intelligence shows Republicans at 37% and Democrats at 41% of ballots returned, while independents/other make up 22%. Analysts caution that these numbers are early and may shift as campaigns unfold.
What's behind the headline?
Key takeaways
- Republicans have a higher share of early returns than four years ago, suggesting a potential shift in momentum for the governor's race.
- Democrats remain divided among a broad field, which could affect consolidation and turnout in the primary.
- Voter age shows a stark split: 65+ have returned 54% of ballots, while 18-34 lag at 10%, signaling different engagement levels across groups.
Implications
- The jungle primary format means party labels don’t decide the runoff; early returns could influence campaign messaging and resource allocation.
- Endorsements and late-breaking developments could alter the trajectory as voters finalize their choices.
- Analysts caution that early data are anecdotal and should be interpreted with patience as more ballots are counted.
How we got here
Voters in California are vying for the gubernatorial nomination in a crowded jungle primary ahead of the June 2 election. The field includes Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco and Democrats Xavier Becerra, Tom Steyer, Katie Porter, Matt Mahan, and Antonio Villaraigosa. Early voting patterns suggest a possible tilt in party momentum, with older voters returning ballots at higher rates.
Our analysis
New York Post reports on early returns showing Republicans at 37% and Democrats at 41% with independents at 22% (May 12, 2026) and May 17, 2026 updates note shifts in momentum; New York Times covers the debate and voter indecision with 3% ballots returned (May 15, 2026). The data set used is Political Data Intelligence (PDI).
Go deeper
- Will the party momentum shown in early returns hold as more ballots are counted?
- Could endorsements or debate performances shift the jungle primary dynamics?
- How might turnout by age groups affect the final runoff outcomes?
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Chad Bianco - American sheriff of Riverside County, California (born 1967)
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Steve Hilton - British Political leader
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Antonio Villaraigosa - Mayor of Los Angeles from 2005 to 2013
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Katie Porter - U.S. Representative
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Xavier Becerra - Attorney General of California
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Gavin Newsom - Governor of California
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