What's happened
Ofgem has set to reveal the annual price cap for July–September for a typical dual‑fuel household in Great Britain. Cornwall Insight predicts a rise to about £1,850, a 13% increase on April’s cap, with October expected to mirror July’s level due to ongoing supply disruptions and higher wholesale prices.
What's behind the headline?
Market dynamics and policy implications
- The cap’s rise is driven by higher wholesale energy prices and continued disruption to energy infrastructure.
- Even with a summer relief, the larger concern is October, when demand increases as temperatures fall and the cap may remain high.
- Government action remains a focal point, with calls for targeted support for vulnerable households while officials emphasize continuity of measures already in place.
- Readers should watch for the size of the October adjustment and any new interim support schemes that may be announced.
How we got here
The price cap is reviewed quarterly and sets the maximum unit price households pay for energy. Cornwall Insight and Reuters have forecast a rise in the cap driven by higher wholesale prices and ongoing supply constraints linked to Middle East tensions. The government has introduced measures to reduce bills, but energy costs are seen as a risk for vulnerable households ahead of winter.
Our analysis
The Independent (Holly Williams), Reuters. The Independent has reported Cornwall Insight’s forecasts and government remarks on affordability. Reuters provides the numerical cap forecast and the drivers from wholesale prices and Hormuz disruptions.
Go deeper
- Will the government announce additional energy support before winter?
- How might October’s cap change affect household budgets?
- What other measures could cushion vulnerable households this year?
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