What's happened
The US has publicly accused China of conducting nuclear explosive tests, including preparations for tests with yields in the hundreds of tons, amid the expiration of the US-Russia New START treaty. The US claims China used decoupling to hide activities, raising concerns over nuclear transparency and arms control.
What's behind the headline?
The US accusations highlight a significant shift in nuclear diplomacy. The US claims China has conducted nuclear tests and used decoupling to conceal activities, which, if true, undermine global arms control efforts. The absence of a new treaty with China and the expiry of New START with Russia create a vacuum that could lead to an arms race. The US's focus on transparency and verification signals a strategic move to pressure China into negotiations, but Beijing's rejection of trilateral talks and emphasis on peaceful development suggest a potential escalation. The situation underscores the fragility of current nuclear agreements and the risk of a new arms race, especially as China’s nuclear arsenal is projected to grow rapidly. The next steps will likely involve increased monitoring, diplomatic pressure, and possibly new treaties, but trust remains low among the major powers.
How we got here
The US and Russia's New START treaty, which limited deployed nuclear warheads, expired in February 2026. The US has accused China of conducting nuclear tests and using decoupling to evade detection, amid broader concerns about nuclear proliferation and the future of arms control agreements. China denies these allegations, emphasizing its commitment to peaceful development and a nuclear testing moratorium.
Our analysis
The New York Times reports that the US has accused China of nuclear testing and using decoupling to hide activities, with claims of tests on June 22, 2020. The Japan Times highlights the tension between Washington and Beijing, emphasizing the US's concerns about China's nuclear expansion. Al Jazeera provides details on the US allegations and China's response, noting the lack of concrete evidence from monitoring systems. Business Insider UK discusses the implications of the US accusations and the broader context of the expired START treaty, with US officials warning of China's growing arsenal. These contrasting perspectives reveal a complex geopolitical landscape, with some sources emphasizing US concerns and others highlighting China's denials and calls for cooperation.
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