One Nation wins Farrer by-election

What's happened

One Nation has won the Farrer by-election in rural New South Wales, ending the Coalition’s 77-year hold on the seat. David Farley has secured a clear two-candidate-preferred majority as the party rides a growing wave of support amid discontent with major parties.

What's behind the headline?

Analysis

• The result marks a historic gain for One Nation in its first lower-house seat, signaling growing appeal among voters disaffected by major parties.
• Analysts say the swing to One Nation is large and may reflect a broader reconfiguration of conservative support rather than a direct forecast of a general election outcome.
• The Liberal Party has seen a sharp drop in support in this by-election, with the party’s primary vote collapsing and losses concentrated in rural NSW.
• The outcome is being read as a warning to the Coalition, though experts caution that by-elections can amplify protest votes and not always translate to the general election.
• Pauline Hanson has framed the win as a momentum boost for further contests, while One Nation emphasizes its anti-establishment message.
• Next steps for voters and parties will hinge on how the major parties respond to the swing and whether One Nation can translate it into durable, nationwide support.

How we got here

The by-election in Farrer was triggered by the resignation of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley. The seat, held by the Coalition since 1949, sits in rural southern New South Wales and centers on issues like water management, health care access, and cost of living. The result signals a test for One Nation’s appeal beyond its traditional base and reflects broader volatility in Australian politics.

Our analysis

SBS: Farley victory with 57% two-candidate-preferred; Reuters: One Nation advances despite Labor’s lack of candidate in Farrer; New York Times: By-election seen as a bellwether for One Nation’s rise; SBS and Reuters provide contemporaneous reporting of the swing and implications.

Go deeper

• What does this by-election say about One Nation’s long-term prospects?
• Will the Coalition adjust its strategy in rural NSW ahead of future elections?
• How might Labor recalibrate its approach without contesting Farrer?

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• Sussan Ley - Member of the Australian Parliament

  Sussan Penelope Ley is an Australian Liberal Party politician serving as Minister for the Environment since 2019, and has served as Member of Parliament for Farrer since 2001.

• Pauline Hanson - Australian politician (born 1954)

  Pauline Lee Hanson (née Seccombe, formerly Zagorski; born 27 May 1954) is an Australian far-right politician who is the leader of One Nation. She has been a senator for Queensland since 2016, and was the member of Parliament (MP) for the Queensland division of Oxley from 1996 to 1998. Born in Brisbane, Hanson worked in small businesses and was a councillor of Ipswich City Council, joining the Liberal Party in 1995. She was preselected as the Liberal candidate for the division of Oxley at the 1996 federal election, but was disendorsed by the party shortly before the election for her controversial comments about Aboriginal Australians. Hanson remained on the ballot paper as the Liberal candidate, winning the election to sit as an independent, before co-founding One Nation in 1997. She was unsuccessful in her re-election attempt at the 1998 election. Hanson unsuccessfully contested the 2001 election as the leader of One Nation, but was expelled from the party in 2002. A District Court jury found Hanson guilty of electoral fraud in 2003, but her convictions were later overturned by the Queensland Court of Appeal. She spent 11 weeks in jail prior to the appeal being heard. Following her...

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