What's happened
One Nation has won the NSW rural seat of Farrer in a by-election, marking the party’s first lower-house victory in three decades. The win comes as polls show growing support for the party amid dissatisfaction with major parties. Labor did not field a candidate in Farrer.
What's behind the headline?
Analysis
- One Nation has achieved a historic by-election win, signaling a potential realignment away from the traditional Liberal-Country Coalition toward a stronger anti-immigration stance.
- The race focused on local issues like water management and healthcare, but national discourse on migration and cost of living is driving the party’s appeal.
- The new seat strengthens Pauline Hanson’s influence and could reshape debate in Parliament, especially on immigration and social policy.
- The victory is unlikely to dent Labor’s overall majority but could foreshadow challenges for the opposition at the next general election.
Outlook
- Expect continued emphasis on border control and cost-of-living relief from One Nation as it extends its reach beyond its traditional base.
How we got here
Farrer has been a Liberal-held seat since its creation and lies in rural New South Wales along the Murray River. The by-election followed the resignation of Liberal leader Sussan Ley in February. The result signals a broader shift in Australian politics, where One Nation is gaining momentum in national polls.
Our analysis
Reuters (Sam McKeith, Byron Kaye); New York Times (Victoria Kim) provide context on the national implications and party dynamics. Reuters notes the Liberal defeat in a long-held seat, while The New York Times frames One Nation as moving from fringe to more serious challenger status. Both outlets highlight the broader trend of anti-immigration sentiment and its electoral impact.
Go deeper
- Could One Nation’s NSW win translate into more seats in the next election?
- How will Labor respond to the rising support for anti-immigration parties?
More on these topics
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Sussan Ley - Member of the Australian Parliament
Sussan Penelope Ley is an Australian Liberal Party politician serving as Minister for the Environment since 2019, and has served as Member of Parliament for Farrer since 2001.
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Australian Broadcasting Corporation - Radio and television broadcasting company
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation is Australia's national broadcaster, founded in 1929. It is principally funded by the direct grants from the Australian government but is expressly independent of government and partisan politics.
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Pauline Hanson - Australian politician (born 1954)
Pauline Lee Hanson (née Seccombe, formerly Zagorski; born 27 May 1954) is an Australian politician who has been a senator for Queensland since 2016. She is the founder and leader of One Nation, a right-wing populist political party. Hanson ran a fish...