What's happened
A year after Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and his successor, the group remains weakened but is actively regrouping. Despite heavy losses and international pressure to disarm, Hezbollah vows to maintain its weapons and resist Israeli threats, signaling ongoing tensions in Lebanon and the region.
What's behind the headline?
Hezbollah's recent actions reveal a strategic shift from full-scale military confrontation to symbolic resistance and political assertion. The group's defiance at Raouche Rocks, projecting images of Nasrallah and Safieddine despite official bans, underscores its resilience and ability to mobilize supporters. The group's leadership losses have not entirely crippled its capacity; instead, Hezbollah is adapting by becoming more agile and focusing on tactical regeneration. The international community's push for disarmament remains unlikely to succeed in the near term, as Hezbollah perceives its weapons as vital for deterrence against Israel and as a symbol of resistance. The ongoing Israeli violations of the ceasefire and continued occupation of Lebanese territory further justify Hezbollah’s stance. The group's ability to rebuild its influence, despite severe setbacks, indicates it will remain a significant regional actor, capable of strategic symbolic acts that challenge Lebanese sovereignty and regional stability. The regional context, including Iran's backing and the shifting power dynamics following Assad's fall in Syria, will shape Hezbollah's future trajectory, likely emphasizing resilience over outright military expansion in the short term.
What the papers say
The articles from Al Jazeera, The New Arab, and The Times of Israel collectively depict Hezbollah as a group that, despite heavy losses and international pressure, is actively asserting its presence and resilience. Al Jazeera emphasizes Hezbollah's defiance and strategic regrouping, quoting analysts who believe the group is now smaller and more agile. The New Arab highlights the symbolic acts of resistance, such as projecting images on Raouche Rocks, and notes the political tensions surrounding Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon. The Times of Israel provides a military perspective, asserting that Hezbollah's influence has declined but that efforts to rebuild capabilities are ongoing. Contrasting opinions include Israeli assessments of Hezbollah's diminished threat level versus regional and Hezbollah supporters' claims of resilience and continued strength. The narrative is consistent across sources: Hezbollah remains a potent symbol of resistance, even as its military power has been significantly degraded.
How we got here
Hezbollah, backed by Iran, has been a major militant and political force in Lebanon since its founding in 1982. It fought multiple conflicts with Israel, notably a 34-day war in 2006 and a 14-month war in 2023-2024, which resulted in significant losses. The group’s leadership was decimated by Israeli strikes, including the killing of Nasrallah in September 2024. Despite setbacks, Hezbollah has maintained its influence, supported by Iran and regional allies, and continues to oppose disarmament efforts amid ongoing regional conflicts and Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory.
Go deeper
Common question
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Why Did Hezbollah Illuminate the Pigeon Rocks in Lebanon?
Recent events in Lebanon have sparked widespread attention, especially after Hezbollah defied official bans to project images of its leaders onto the iconic Pigeon Rocks. This act of defiance raises questions about Hezbollah's motives, Lebanon's internal tensions, and regional stability. Below, we explore the significance of this event and what it means for Lebanon and its neighbors.
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How Do International Events Influence Local Elections?
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What’s the current status of Hezbollah after its leadership loss?
Hezbollah has faced significant setbacks after the targeted killing of its leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah. Despite these losses, the group remains resilient and continues to rebuild its capabilities. Many wonder how these changes affect regional stability, Lebanon’s political landscape, and the ongoing conflict with Israel. Below, we explore the latest developments and answer common questions about Hezbollah’s current position and future prospects.
More on these topics
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Hassan Nasrallah is the third and current Secretary General of the Lebanese political and paramilitary party Hezbollah since his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, was assassinated by the Israel Defense Forces in February 1992.
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Hezbollah is a Shia Islamist political party and militant group based in Lebanon. Hezbollah's paramilitary wing is the Jihad Council, and its political wing is the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc party in the Lebanese parliament.
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Hashem Safieddine (1964 – 3 October 2024) was a Lebanese Shia cleric who served as the head of Hezbollah's Executive Council from 2001 until his assassination in 2024. A maternal cousin of Hassan Nasrallah, Safieddine was considered the "number two" in.
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Nawaf Abdallah Salim Salam is a Lebanese politician, diplomat, jurist and academic who is the prime minister-designate of Lebanon.
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Israel, formally known as the State of Israel, is a country in Western Asia, located on the southeastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern shore of the Red Sea.
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Naim Qassem is a Shia Lebanese cleric and politician, who was the second-in-command of Hezbollah with the title of deputy secretary-general.
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Lebanon, officially known as the Lebanese Republic, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered by Syria to the north and east and Israel to the south, while Cyprus lies west across the Mediterranean Sea.
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Ali Ardeshir Larijani is an Iranian conservative politician, philosopher and former military officer in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who served as the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran from 2008 to 2020.
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Nabih Berri is a Lebanese politician who has been the Speaker of the Parliament of Lebanon since 1992. He heads the Amal Movement.