What's happened
European leaders' weak leadership and strained transatlantic ties threaten stability. Russia's refusal to ceasefire and Ukraine's resistance persist, while US commitments remain uncertain. The year will test Europe's resilience amid geopolitical tensions and internal vulnerabilities.
What's behind the headline?
Strategic Uncertainty in Europe
Europe's reliance on ad-hoc diplomacy and transactional relationships with the US will likely deepen its vulnerabilities in 2026. The weak leadership among key EU nations hampers coordinated responses to emerging threats, especially as Russia's President Putin calculates that Ukraine's military situation will worsen, pushing Kyiv toward territorial concessions.
Transatlantic Tensions and Risks
The US commitment remains unpredictable, with recent support characterized by fluctuating tone and ambiguous security guarantees. The inclusion of figures like Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff in diplomatic discussions signals a focus on symbolic unity rather than substantive policy shifts. The potential for new threats, especially regarding Greenland, could destabilize this fragile balance.
Russia-Ukraine Dynamics
Putin's strategy appears to bank on Ukraine's military deterioration, expecting Kyiv to capitulate. However, Europe's increased military spending and sanctions targeting energy revenues are designed to sustain Ukraine's resistance. Nonetheless, Russian aerial attacks and energy infrastructure strikes are expected to intensify, prolonging the conflict.
Future Outlook
The year will likely see continued instability, with Europe's internal divisions and external threats compounding. The absence of decisive leadership and clear US backing could lead to a more fragmented and vulnerable European security environment, with the risk of escalation if Russia perceives opportunities to exploit divisions.
What the papers say
The analysis draws from Politico's assessment of Europe's leadership erosion and transatlantic relations, Sky News's coverage of US commitments and NATO support, and the New York Times's insights into Ukraine-Russia negotiations and security guarantees. Politico emphasizes Europe's internal weaknesses and the risks posed by Russia's strategic calculations. Sky News highlights the US's fluctuating stance and diplomatic efforts, while the New York Times critiques the credibility of security assurances offered to Ukraine, warning that reliance on vague guarantees could undermine Kyiv's strategic position. These perspectives collectively underscore the complex, uncertain geopolitical landscape facing Europe in 2026.
How we got here
Over the past year, Europe has experienced declining norms and leadership weakness, especially among Germany, France, and the UK. The bloc's primary focus has been maintaining US support for Ukraine amid ongoing Russian aggression. Russia's refusal to accept ceasefire terms and Ukraine's military resilience continue to shape the geopolitical landscape, with European military spending and sanctions aimed at countering Russian energy revenues.
Go deeper
Common question
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Why Is Russia Increasing Attacks on Ukraine Now?
Recent escalations in Russia's attacks on Ukraine have raised many questions. Why is this happening now, and what does it mean for the ongoing conflict? In this page, we explore the reasons behind the recent surge in hostilities, the main targets in Ukraine, and the international response. Understanding these developments is crucial for grasping the current state of the Ukraine conflict and its global implications.
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What’s Next for Europe in 2026? Leadership, Security, and Stability
Europe faces a pivotal year in 2026, with significant challenges surrounding leadership, security, and geopolitical stability. Weak leadership among key nations, strained transatlantic relations, and ongoing conflicts with Russia threaten to reshape the continent’s future. As Europe navigates these turbulent waters, many wonder how resilient the continent truly is and what role international alliances will play. Below, we explore the key questions about Europe's prospects this year and what factors will influence its path forward.
More on these topics
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Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008.
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Ukraine is a country in Eastern Europe. It is the second-largest European country after Russia, which borders it to the east and northeast.