What's happened
Global personal luxury goods sales are forecast to grow 2-4% in 2026, reaching 365-373 billion euros. The rebound is led by the Americas, with U.S. brands posting up to 15% first-quarter growth. Prices have stabilized after consumer pushback, and China is set to return to growth as online ready-to-wear picks up. Europe lags due to weaker tourism.
What's behind the headline?
Key dynamics
- The Americas are driving recovery as brands regain customer trust.
- Pricing stabilization and more entry-level offerings are expanding the market base.
- China is poised to rebound with online channels supporting ready-to-wear growth.
- Europe remains soft due to travel restrictions and geopolitical tensions.
What this means for readers
- A return to growth could boost luxury-related earnings and jobs in retail hubs.
- Expect more accessible luxury lines as brands compete on value.
Forecast outlook
- Bain’s base-case envisions 2-4% growth; downside scenarios hinge on Middle East stability and China performance.
- A stronger rebound could lift growth to up to 6% if geopolitics ease and Chinese demand improves.
How we got here
The luxury goods market has endured a downturn over the past two years. Bain & Co. projects a recovery in 2026, driven by demand in the Americas and stabilizing prices, with China expected to improve gradually and Europe struggling with tourism declines. This follows a consumer shift toward better life quality and experiential spending.
Our analysis
AP News reports Bain & Co. projects 2026 growth with a U.S.-led recovery; Axios tracks polarization in spending among high- and low-income households; Bloomberg provides regional insights with Dubai and global mobility trends.
Go deeper
- Will consumer confidence sustain the rebound into 2027?
- Are luxury brands shifting more entry-level products to attract new buyers?
- How will tourism trends affect luxury demand in Europe next year?