What's happened
New statistics show Scotland’s births have fallen to a record low for the third year, while deaths outnumber births for an eleventh consecutive year. Fertility rates have dropped to 1.23, and migration is driving population growth. Stillbirths and infant deaths show small shifts, with adoptions dipping.
What's behind the headline?
Key takeaways
- The fertility rate has fallen to 1.23, the lowest since 1973, suggesting ongoing challenges to natural population replacement.
- The population rose slightly in 2025 due to migration, not births, highlighting the country’s reliance on net migration to offset demographic decline.
- Stillbirths rose to 188, while infant deaths fell to 150; adoptions declined to 340.
Implications
- Demographic shifts may pressure public services and pension systems, prompting policy debates on family support, childcare, and immigration.
- The data may influence long-term planning for housing, schools, and healthcare capacity as the population structure ages.
How we got here
The National Records of Scotland (NRS) publishes annual data on vital events. In 2025, Scotland registered 45,067 live births (down 696 from 2024), with 61,726 deaths (eleventh consecutive year of more deaths than births). The gap reflects long-term demographic trends and migration impacts. The figures inform public policy decisions around family support, healthcare, and migration.
Our analysis
BBC Business reports that 45,067 births occurred in 2025, with 61,726 deaths; The Scotsman provides context on dementia as a leading cause of death and reiterates the persistence of negative natural change. Both cite Alison Byrne of NRS. Read the NRS release for official figures and methodology.
Go deeper
- What policies could mitigate the birth-rate decline in Scotland?
- How might migration trends affect Scotland’s public services in the next five years?
- Will future data alter the trajectory of population growth?
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National Records of Scotland - Non-ministerial department of the Scottish Government
National Records of Scotland (Scottish Gaelic: Clàran Nàiseanta na h-Alba) is a non-ministerial department of the Scottish Government. It is responsible for civil registration, the census in Scotland, demography and statistics, family history and the...
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Scotland - Country of the United Kingdom
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