What's happened
Multiple sources indicate a 50-60% chance of El Niño developing later this year, which could influence global temperatures and weather patterns. Forecasts remain uncertain, but models suggest potential impacts on North American winter and worldwide climate trends over the next year.
What's behind the headline?
The potential formation of El Niño in 2026 signals a significant shift in global climate dynamics. While models show some uncertainty, the signals from sea surface temperature patterns and trade wind behaviors strongly indicate an upcoming event. This will likely lead to higher global temperatures, with impacts on weather extremes such as droughts and heavy rainfall. The timing suggests that the most pronounced temperature effects will occur in 2027, following the typical El Niño cycle. The ongoing influence of climate change amplifies these effects, making the forecast more critical for policymakers and climate scientists to monitor. The story underscores the importance of preparedness for climate variability and highlights the role of oceanic patterns in shaping future weather trends.
What the papers say
The New York Times explains that El Niño occurs as trade winds shift, allowing warm water to slosh eastward, impacting global temperatures and weather patterns. The Japan Times notes a 50% likelihood of El Niño forming in spring, with models suggesting development from June, but emphasizes the uncertainty in long-term forecasts. The Guardian highlights that climate models forecast a possible El Niño later this year, which could push global temperatures to record highs in 2027, with experts pointing to the stored warm water in the Pacific as a key indicator. All sources agree that while predictions are uncertain, the signals point toward a significant climate event that warrants close monitoring.
How we got here
El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by warming of surface waters in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. It occurs roughly every three to seven years and influences global weather, often causing wetter conditions in some regions and droughts in others. The last major El Niño in 2022-2023 contributed to record global temperatures, and current ocean temperature patterns suggest a possible return in 2026.
Go deeper
More on these topics
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El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including the area off the Pacific coast of South America.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is an American scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce that focuses on the conditions of the oceans, major waterways, and the atmosphere.