What's happened
Satellite imagery has shown Iran expanding underground facilities at multiple bases, including Garmdareh in Karaj and Shahroud, with possible connections to missile production. Analysts say Iran is moving infrastructure underground to defend against strikes, while officials insist stockpiles remain large.
What's behind the headline?
- The shift to subterranean facilities represents a strategic recalibration aimed at preserving Iran's military-industrial capacity amid external pressure.
- The visibility of new portals and tunnel entrances could complicate external assessments of Iran's true capability and readiness.
- This trend aligns with prior statements by officials who warned that Tehran aims to deter future strikes by hardening infrastructure.
- The development may escalate regional tensions, as adversaries perceive a higher risk of covert, hard-to-detect production and storage.
- Readers should monitor for potential shifts in regional security posture and U.S./allied responses, including renewed calls for strikes or sanctions to limit underground capabilities.
How we got here
Iran has faced repeated US-Israeli strikes since early in the current conflict. Satellite images reviewed by MAIAR and corroborated by BBC Verify indicate digging and construction at several bases, with tunnels and portals visible, suggesting a renewed emphasis on underground facilities to shield capabilities from aerial attacks.
Our analysis
BBC Verify, MAIAR analysts, Janes Defense Intelligence, CSIS, The Wall Street Journal, New York Post, Arab News
Go deeper
- What new evidence links the sites to missile production?
- Could underground facilities affect the timeline for any potential strikes?
- What are Western officials saying about the interpretation of these satellite images?
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