France and Israel Budget Deadlocks Persist

What's happened

As of February 2, 2026, France's minority government led by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has passed the 2026 budget after months of deadlock, using constitutional Article 49.3 to bypass parliamentary votes and surviving multiple no-confidence motions. Meanwhile, Israel's coalition faces a tough battle to approve its 2026 budget amid disputes over ultra-Orthodox military conscription exemptions, with key ultra-Orthodox factions signaling conditional support for initial budget readings.

What's behind the headline?

Political Deadlock and Constitutional Maneuvers

Both France and Israel are grappling with budget approvals amid fragmented parliaments and coalition tensions. France's Prime Minister Lecornu resorted to Article 49.3, a constitutional provision allowing the government to pass legislation without a parliamentary vote, reflecting the deep divisions in the National Assembly. This move, while effective in passing the budget, has drawn criticism for bypassing democratic debate and triggered multiple no-confidence motions, which Lecornu narrowly survived thanks to concessions to the Socialist Party.

Fiscal Pressures and Deficit Targets

France aims to reduce its deficit to 5% of GDP in 2026, easing from an earlier target of 4.7%, while increasing military spending by €6.5 billion. The budget includes higher business taxes but no wealth tax on the superrich. Israel's budget deficit target is set at 3.9% of GDP, though the Bank of Israel considers this too high to reduce debt burden. Defense spending has surged in Israel due to ongoing conflicts, further complicating fiscal discipline.

Coalition Fragility and Military Conscription

Israel's coalition is deeply polarized over the exemption of ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students from mandatory military service. Ultra-Orthodox parties have threatened to withhold budget support unless conscription exemptions are secured, while other coalition members and opposition demand broader military participation. This impasse risks triggering early elections, with Finance Minister Smotrich openly challenging ultra-Orthodox parties to either support the budget or face dissolution of the Knesset.

Implications and Outlook

France's budget passage provides temporary political stability but leaves underlying parliamentary fragmentation unresolved. The use of Article 49.3 may set a precedent for future executive overreach. Israel faces a more precarious situation, with the budget's fate tied to a contentious social issue that could destabilize the government before the scheduled October elections. Both countries illustrate the challenges of governing amid polarized legislatures and competing fiscal and security priorities.

How we got here

France has struggled with budget approval since President Macron's 2024 snap election resulted in a hung parliament, causing political instability and two prime ministers losing office. The government used Article 49.3 to force the budget through. In Israel, the 2026 budget approval is complicated by coalition splits over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students, risking early elections if the budget is not passed by March.

Our analysis

The New York Times highlights Prime Minister Lecornu's reluctant use of Article 49.3 to break a four-month budget deadlock, noting his initial pledge not to use this 'nuclear option' and the political cost of bypassing parliamentary votes. Politico details the constitutional mechanism and the survival of Lecornu's government through Socialist Party concessions, emphasizing the budget's deficit target adjustment from 4.7% to about 5% of GDP. France 24 reports on the no-confidence motions filed by the far-left and far-right, which failed to topple the government, and Macron's endorsement of the budget as a compromise. In contrast, Reuters and The Times of Israel focus on Israel's budget struggles, underscoring the coalition's polarization over ultra-Orthodox military conscription exemptions. Reuters quotes Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's challenge to ultra-Orthodox parties to support the budget or face early elections, while The Times of Israel details the delicate balance of votes and the looming March deadline. The New Arab echoes these tensions, highlighting the political stakes and the Bank of Israel's concerns over the deficit ceiling. Together, these sources provide a nuanced view of two democracies wrestling with budget approvals amid political fragmentation, fiscal pressures, and security concerns.

Go deeper

• What is Article 49.3 and how does it affect French politics?
• Why is military conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jews so controversial in Israel?
• How will these budget decisions impact the economies of France and Israel?

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