What's happened
The World Meteorological Organization warns El Niño conditions are forming with an 80% chance this summer and a 90% chance of persisting through November. Scientists say a stronger-than-average El Niño will intensify heatwaves, droughts and rainfall extremes, worsening global food and energy pressures and potentially making 2027 the hottest year yet.
What's behind the headline?
Live briefing on what this means
- El Niño is returning and is forecast to be at least moderate, with models suggesting the strongest outcomes could worsen heatwaves and rainfall extremes in many regions.
- The WMO and UN are warning that these conditions will pour fuel on a warming world, potentially pushing 2027 toward record heat.
- Impacts will be uneven: some areas face drought and crop losses, others face floods and infrastructure stress. Enhanced heat will strain energy demand and cooling needs.
- Policy relevance: preparedness, renewables transition, and early warning systems are critical to mitigate food and water stress and health risks.
What’s changed this time
- The consensus now points to a high likelihood of sustained El Niño through November, with possibly stronger-than-average effects, according to the WMO and UN leaders.
- Some forecasts suggest 2027 could set a new heat record as a compound effect of climate change.
Reader takeaway
- Stay informed about regional forecasts, conserve energy, and review disaster readiness plans as heat and rainfall patterns shift.
How we got here
El Niño is a recurring warming of central and eastern Pacific waters that disrupts global climate patterns. Forecasts indicate this event is developing now, with evidence of warming sea surface temperatures and subsurface heat reservoirs driving surface warming. Its impacts vary by region but often include hotter temperatures and altered rainfall, stressing food systems and infrastructure.
Our analysis
Reuters (Kate Abnett), World Meteorological Organization (WMO) briefings, Politico (Zia Weise), Guardian (UN quotes) — cited for their emphasis on the developing El Niño and its global impacts.
Go deeper
- How will El Niño affect your region’s rainfall and heat stress this year?
- What steps are governments prioritising to protect food systems and energy infrastructure?
- Are there new advisories for vulnerable populations this summer?
More on these topics
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World Meteorological Organization - Intergovernmental organization
The World Meteorological Organization is an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 193 Member States and Territories. The President of the World Meteorological Congress, its supreme body, is Gerhard Adrian as a successor of David Grimes. The
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El Niño
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including the area off the Pacific coast of South America.