What's happened
The World Meteorological Organization has warned an El Niño event is forming with an 80% chance before September and a 90% chance it will persist through November. The pattern will likely intensify heat, drought and flooding in various regions this year and could make 2027 the hottest year on record, according to WMO; UN and scientists emphasize rapid climate action.
What's behind the headline?
Key points
- El Niño is forming with high likelihood and is expected to last into late 2026.
- Climate change is amplifying El Niño impacts, raising risks of heatwaves, droughts, floods and food insecurity.
- Predictions indicate regional shifts in rainfall; some areas may face intensified storms while others experience drought.
- Global temperatures could hit new highs, with 2027 possibly the hottest year on record.
What this means for readers
- Expect more extreme weather events in coming months.
- Agricultural sectors and water resources are likely to feel stress in affected regions.
- Preparedness and resilience measures, including early warning and adaptation plans, become increasingly critical.
Caveats
- El Niño strength varies by year; models disagree on whether this will be a "strong" event, though the risk remains high.
How we got here
El Niño is a natural cycle that warms central and eastern Pacific waters. This year’s forecast combines warming with a higher baseline temperature from climate change, increasing the potential for extreme weather events. Previous El Niño years have disrupted rainfall patterns and heightened heatwaves, informing current risk assessments.
Our analysis
Reuters (Kate Abnett), Reuters (Olivia Le Poidevin), The Guardian (UN/World Meteorological Organization statements) — all note the 80-90% likelihood and potential record heat; Guterres and WMO call for action.
Go deeper
- What regions should readers monitor for rainfall shifts in the next quarter?
- How should households prepare for higher heat and drought risk?
- What policies are governments prioritizing to accelerate climate action in light of this forecast?
More on these topics
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World Meteorological Organization - Intergovernmental organization
The World Meteorological Organization is an intergovernmental organization with a membership of 193 Member States and Territories. The President of the World Meteorological Congress, its supreme body, is Gerhard Adrian as a successor of David Grimes. The
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El Niño
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including the area off the Pacific coast of South America.