Trump's Approval Hits New Low

What's happened

Recent polls show President Trump’s approval ratings are at their lowest in his second term, with only 40% approval. This decline impacts upcoming midterm elections, as voters grow increasingly dissatisfied with his handling of the economy and immigration. The political landscape is shifting ahead of 2026.

What's behind the headline?

Trump’s declining approval ratings signal a challenging environment for the GOP heading into 2026. The polls reveal a stark contrast between his support among core demographics and broader public opinion, especially among non-college voters and evangelicals, who are moving away from him. This erosion is driven by unmet economic promises, high inflation, and immigration issues. The political strategy of Trump and his allies appears increasingly disconnected from voter concerns, risking further losses in upcoming elections.

The midterm elections will likely reflect this dissatisfaction, with polls suggesting Democrats could gain ground. The relationship between Trump’s approval and congressional results remains strong, and his unpopularity could translate into significant losses for Republicans. The internal party dynamics, including Trump’s refusal to endorse vulnerable incumbents and his provocative rhetoric, may further alienate moderate voters and energize opposition.

Overall, the data indicates that Trump’s influence is waning, and unless the GOP adjusts its messaging and strategy, it will face substantial headwinds in 2026. The political landscape is shifting, and the midterms will serve as a critical barometer of his declining support and the broader Republican prospects.

How we got here

Since taking office, Trump’s approval ratings have fluctuated, but recent polls indicate a significant decline. Polls from CNN, Quinnipiac, NBC, Yahoo/YouGov, and AP-NORC show his ratings dropping to historic lows, coinciding with economic concerns and dissatisfaction over immigration policies. Historically, presidential approval influences midterm outcomes, and current trends suggest trouble for Republicans.

Our analysis

The Independent reports that Trump’s approval ratings are at their lowest in years, with polls from Quinnipiac, NBC, Yahoo/YouGov, and AP-NORC showing him nearly 20 points underwater. The article highlights that his unpopularity is affecting GOP primary races and congressional campaigns, with some Republicans distancing themselves from him. Meanwhile, the New York Times notes that Trump’s approval has dropped to 40%, the lowest of his second term, and discusses the potential impact on midterm elections, referencing historical correlations between presidential approval and congressional outcomes. Both sources emphasize that Trump’s declining support is linked to economic issues, immigration dissatisfaction, and internal party conflicts, which could significantly influence the 2026 electoral landscape.

Go deeper

How might Trump’s declining approval affect the 2026 midterms?
What are the main issues driving his unpopularity?
Could this lead to a shift in Republican strategies?