What's happened
The US, China, and Southeast Asian nations are intensifying efforts to control critical mineral supplies amid China's export restrictions and regional competition. The US seeks to diversify supply chains and reduce reliance on China, with new agreements and legislative efforts targeting rare earths, vital for technology and defense sectors.
What's behind the headline?
The global race for rare earths is a critical component of geopolitical power. China's near-monopoly on processing and exports gives it leverage in trade disputes, while the US and Southeast Asian nations are attempting to build independent supply chains. However, the US faces significant hurdles: slow domestic capacity growth, reliance on foreign processing, and the need for substantial industrial policy reforms. Meanwhile, China's strategic use of export controls underscores its ability to influence global markets. The recent agreements with Thailand and Malaysia are symbolic but lack immediate impact, as building processing infrastructure takes years. The US's focus on public-private partnerships and legislative measures will likely be insufficient without comprehensive industrial strategies. The next decade will determine whether the US can meaningfully reduce dependence on China or remain vulnerable to supply disruptions, especially given China's resource and processing dominance. This struggle will shape the future of global technology, defense, and energy sectors, with implications for economic security and geopolitical stability.
What the papers say
The AP News article highlights the recent US diplomatic efforts and legislative initiatives aimed at diversifying critical mineral supplies, emphasizing the slow progress in domestic capacity building. The South China Morning Post provides a detailed overview of China's dominance in rare earth processing and the vulnerabilities faced by the US and Southeast Asia, stressing China's strategic leverage through export controls. Business Insider UK underscores the geopolitical importance of rare earths, noting China's control over 92% of refining and 98% of magnet production, and discusses the slow pace of Western efforts to develop independent supply chains. The NY Post offers a critical perspective on the US dependence on China, framing it as a strategic blunder and emphasizing the need for aggressive policy responses to counter China's dominance, including public-private cooperation and industrial policy reforms.
How we got here
China controls approximately 70% of global rare earth mining and 90% of processing, giving it significant strategic power. The US has historically relied heavily on Chinese supplies, importing over 95% of its rare earths, which has created vulnerabilities. Recent export controls by China and efforts by the US and Southeast Asian nations reflect a strategic shift to diversify sources and develop domestic industries.
Go deeper
Common question
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Why Are the US, China, and Southeast Asia Fighting Over Rare Earths?
The global race for rare earths and critical minerals is heating up, with major players like the US, China, and Southeast Asian nations vying for control. These minerals are essential for modern technology, defense, and green energy. But why is this competition so fierce, and what does it mean for the future? Below, we explore the key questions about this critical geopolitical struggle.
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