What's happened
Iran has appointed a three-person Interim Leadership Council following the death of Ayatollah Khamenei. The Assembly of Experts is expected to swiftly select a new supreme leader, amid tensions including an Israeli attack on Qom and speculation about Mojtaba Khamenei's potential succession.
What's behind the headline?
The succession process in Iran remains deeply opaque, with the Assembly of Experts under significant influence from the regime's hard-liners. The potential elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei signals a possible shift toward a more hard-line leadership, especially given his close ties to the Revolutionary Guard. The Israeli attack on Qom, a key religious and political hub, highlights the geopolitical stakes and the regime's desire to demonstrate resilience. The swift appointment of a new leader aims to project stability, but underlying factional tensions and external threats suggest ongoing instability. The choice of successor will shape Iran’s domestic policies and its foreign relations, especially with Israel and the West. The process's lack of transparency and the influence of military and religious elites mean the outcome will likely favor hard-liners, potentially escalating regional tensions.
What the papers say
The Independent reports that Iran has created a three-person Interim Leadership Council to oversee the transition, with the Assembly of Experts expected to quickly appoint a new supreme leader. The article notes the influence of factions like the Revolutionary Guard and the potential for Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father, despite his lack of formal clerical status. Meanwhile, the New York Times highlights the possibility of Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment, citing concerns about his association with hard-line elements and the regime's internal power struggles. The NYT also reports that Israel targeted a building in Qom during the assembly's meeting, emphasizing the heightened geopolitical tensions. Both sources agree that the process is heavily influenced by regime factions, with external threats complicating the succession, and that the outcome will significantly impact Iran’s future direction.
How we got here
The Islamic Republic of Iran has only twice experienced a leadership transition since 1979. The current process follows the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, who had served as supreme leader since 1989. The Assembly of Experts, an elected body of clerics, is tasked with selecting his successor, a process historically opaque and influenced by powerful factions like the Revolutionary Guard. The interim council is guiding the country through this crisis, with potential candidates ranging from Khamenei's son Mojtaba to other senior clerics and political figures. The recent Israeli strike on Qom, where the assembly was meeting, underscores the heightened tensions surrounding Iran's leadership succession.
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Iran, also called Persia, and officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered to the northwest by Armenia and Azerbaijan, to the north by the Caspian Sea, to the northeast by Turkmenistan, to the east by Afghanistan a
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