What's happened
Allan Lichtman, a historian known for his accurate presidential predictions, forecasts that Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election against Donald Trump. His model indicates eight favorable keys for Harris, despite the loss of incumbency. This prediction comes after Biden's withdrawal from the race in July 2024.
Why it matters
What the papers say
According to The Guardian, Lichtman stated, 'Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,' highlighting the absence of a strong third-party candidate and favorable economic indicators. The Independent notes that Lichtman's model has accurately predicted nine out of ten elections, reinforcing his credibility. Business Insider UK reports that Lichtman identified eight keys favoring Harris, while Trump only has three, indicating a significant advantage for the Democratic nominee. The New York Times emphasizes Lichtman's confidence in his model, which focuses on historical trends rather than polling data.
How we got here
Allan Lichtman has been predicting U.S. presidential elections since 1984 using his 'Keys to the White House' model. His recent prediction follows President Biden's decision to step aside after a poor debate performance against Trump, allowing Harris to become the Democratic nominee without a primary contest.
Common question
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What Are Lichtman's Predictions for Harris vs. Trump in 2024?
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, political predictions are heating up. Historian Allan Lichtman has made a bold forecast, claiming that Kamala Harris will emerge victorious against Donald Trump. This prediction is based on a unique model that evaluates key political factors. What does this mean for the election landscape, and what should voters consider as they prepare to cast their ballots?
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Will Kamala Harris Beat Donald Trump in the 2024 Election?
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, predictions are swirling about the potential matchup between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Allan Lichtman, a historian known for his accurate election forecasts, has made a bold prediction that Harris will emerge victorious. This raises several questions about the factors influencing this prediction and the implications for voters. Let's explore the key aspects of this political landscape.
More on these topics
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Allan Jay Lichtman is an American historian who has taught at American University in Washington, D.C. since 1973.
Lichtman created the The Keys to the White House model, which he created with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.
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Kamala Devi Harris is an American attorney and politician who has served as the junior United States Senator from California since 2017.
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Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.