What's happened
The New START treaty, which limited US and Russian nuclear arsenals, expired on February 5, 2026, ending decades of arms control. Russia proposes a one-year extension; the US has yet to respond. Without the treaty, there are fears of a renewed arms race and increased global instability.
What's behind the headline?
The expiry of the New START treaty marks a significant shift in global nuclear stability. Without formal limits, the US and Russia are likely to increase their arsenals, potentially adding hundreds of warheads each. This escalation will heighten the risk of miscalculation and reduce transparency, making crisis management more difficult. The US's interest in including China reflects a recognition of the shifting nuclear landscape, but Beijing’s refusal to negotiate trilaterally underscores the geopolitical complexity. Russia’s statement about taking 'countermeasures' signals a readiness to act unilaterally, which could further destabilize strategic stability. The international community, including the UN Secretary-General, warns that this development could lead to a dangerous new arms race, with the potential for increased nuclear threats globally. The next steps will depend heavily on diplomatic negotiations, but the current trajectory suggests heightened tensions and reduced control over nuclear proliferation.
What the papers say
The New Arab highlights the historical context and the potential for a new arms race, emphasizing Russia’s readiness for countermeasures and the US’s pursuit of a broader deal including China. Sky News underscores the geopolitical deterioration following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the lack of recent negotiations, warning of a destabilizing arms race. The Japan Times and Reuters provide detailed background on the treaties’ history, the limits they imposed, and the strategic implications of their expiration, noting that the US and Russia are now free to expand their arsenals without formal constraints. Both sources agree that the absence of a new treaty increases the risk of miscalculation and destabilization, but Sky News emphasizes the current diplomatic deadlock and the potential for escalation, while the other outlets focus on the historical importance and future risks.
How we got here
The New START treaty, signed in 2010, was the last in a series of nuclear agreements dating back to Cold War-era accords of 1972. It capped deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 for both the US and Russia and included verification measures. The treaty was extended in 2021 but expired on February 5, 2026, amid deteriorating US-Russia relations following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and disagreements over China’s nuclear build-up. Russia has proposed a one-year informal extension, but the US has not committed, citing the desire for a broader deal including China. The absence of a treaty raises concerns about increased nuclear proliferation and reduced transparency.
Go deeper
Common question
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What Happens Now That the Nuclear Arms Treaty Has Ended?
The expiration of the New START treaty marks a major shift in global arms control. With the treaty's end, many are asking what this means for international security, the risk of a new arms race, and how Russia and the US will move forward. Below, we explore the key questions and what the future might hold after this historic treaty expires.
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What Happens Now That the US-Russia Nuclear Treaty Ended?
The expiration of the New START treaty marks a significant shift in global security dynamics. With the treaty's end, questions arise about the future of nuclear arms control, the risk of a new arms race, and what this means for international stability. Below, we explore the key issues surrounding this development and what it could mean for the world.
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