What's happened
On December 29-30, 2025, China launched its largest military exercises yet around Taiwan, named "Justice Mission 2025." The drills involved live-fire rocket launches, naval blockades, and air sorties encircling Taiwan, simulating a blockade of key ports. Taiwan responded with heightened military alert and flight disruptions, while China framed the exercises as a warning against Taiwan independence and foreign interference following a record $11.1 billion US arms sale to Taiwan.
What's behind the headline?
Strategic Significance of Justice Mission 2025
China's "Justice Mission 2025" drills represent a clear escalation in both scale and proximity to Taiwan compared to previous exercises. By simulating blockades of Taiwan's major ports, Keelung and Kaohsiung, and firing live rockets into waters within Taiwan's 24-nautical-mile contiguous zone, China is demonstrating its capability to isolate Taiwan economically and militarily.
Messaging and Deterrence
The exercises serve multiple purposes: a direct warning to Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party against pursuing independence, a signal to the US and Japan regarding their support for Taiwan, and a domestic show of strength by the Chinese Communist Party. The use of provocative imagery and rhetoric, such as posters depicting "arrows of justice" striking Taiwan, underscores Beijing's intent to intimidate.
Impact on Regional Stability and Civilian Life
The drills disrupted over 900 flights and affected maritime routes, highlighting the broader consequences beyond military posturing. Taiwan's measured response—condemning the drills but avoiding escalation—reflects a strategy to maintain stability while preparing defenses.
Forecast and Consequences
Given the timing shortly after the US's record arms sale and Japan's assertive statements, these drills will likely become a recurring feature of China's pressure campaign. They increase the risk of miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait and complicate diplomatic efforts. The international community faces a challenge balancing deterrence and avoiding escalation.
Reader Relevance
For global audiences, these developments signal heightened geopolitical tensions with potential impacts on global supply chains and security alliances. For residents in the region, the drills underscore the persistent threat of conflict and the importance of diplomatic and military preparedness.
What the papers say
The New York Times detailed the scale and intent of the drills, noting the seven live-fire zones and China's focus on blockading Taiwan's ports, quoting Senior Colonel Shi Yi describing the exercises as "a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity." The New Arab highlighted Taiwan's condemnation of the drills as "highly provocative and reckless," with Taiwanese officials stating the blockade "essentially did not happen," suggesting a psychological rather than operational goal. Al Jazeera emphasized the disruption to civil aviation and maritime routes, quoting experts on the strategic implications of China's anti-access aerial denial capabilities. The Associated Press and NY Post reported on the extensive military assets deployed and Taiwan's detection of Chinese aircraft and ships crossing sensitive boundaries, with Taiwan's Defense Minister calling the actions "highly provocative." Meanwhile, France 24 and Reuters provided context on the diplomatic tensions involving the US arms sale and Japan's statements, underscoring the broader geopolitical stakes. Across sources, President Lai Ching-te's stance was consistent: condemning the drills while pledging responsible defense without escalation. US President Donald Trump downplayed concerns, citing his relationship with Xi Jinping and routine nature of such exercises. This range of perspectives illustrates the complex interplay of military posturing, diplomatic signaling, and regional security concerns surrounding the drills.
How we got here
Since 1949, Taiwan has been governed separately from China, which claims the island as its sovereign territory and has not ruled out forceful reunification. Military tensions have escalated in recent years, especially after US arms sales to Taiwan and political statements from Japan supporting Taiwan's defense. China has increased military drills around Taiwan since 2022, with the latest exercises marking the largest and closest to the island to date.
Go deeper
- What are the implications of these drills for US-China relations?
- How is Taiwan preparing to respond to future Chinese military exercises?
- What impact do these drills have on regional trade and aviation?
Common question
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Why is China conducting military drills around Taiwan?
China's recent large-scale military exercises around Taiwan have raised global concern. These drills are part of China's efforts to assert sovereignty and deter independence movements, especially in response to US arms sales and Japanese security comments. But what exactly is happening, and what does it mean for regional stability? Below, we explore the key questions about China's military actions and their implications.
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Why Is China Conducting Large Military Drills Around Taiwan?
Recent Chinese military exercises near Taiwan have raised global concerns about regional stability and potential conflict. These drills, the largest yet, come amid heightened tensions following US arms sales to Taiwan and Japan's military comments. Many wonder what China's intentions are and how neighboring countries are responding. Below, we explore the key questions surrounding these developments and what they mean for the future of the region.
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