What's happened
Lebanon's recent municipal elections, held on May 24, 2025, tested Hezbollah's popularity post-war with Israel. Despite significant challenges, including low voter turnout and ongoing reconstruction issues, Hezbollah and its ally Amal secured many uncontested victories, indicating their continued influence in Shia regions.
What's behind the headline?
Key Insights
- Voter Turnout Decline: Voter turnout decreased across Lebanon, with Southern Lebanon seeing a drop from 48% in 2016 to 37% in 2025. This trend may reflect waning support for Hezbollah, yet the uncontested victories suggest a strategic maneuver to maintain dominance.
- Acclamation Strategy: Hezbollah's approach of winning many municipalities uncontested indicates a desire to project strength and unity within the Shia community, especially amid external pressures for disarmament.
- Impact of War: The recent war has left many Shia constituents feeling their fate is intertwined with Hezbollah's survival, complicating any potential disarmament efforts. The group's electoral performance suggests that despite losses, it remains a significant political force.
- International Pressure: The Lebanese government, under President Joseph Aoun, is facing international calls for Hezbollah's disarmament, which could lead to increased tensions within the country if not handled delicately.
- Future Implications: The results of these elections may influence Hezbollah's strategy moving forward, particularly in how it navigates its relationship with the Lebanese state and international actors seeking to limit its military capabilities.
What the papers say
According to The New Arab, the municipal elections were crucial for Hezbollah to demonstrate its continued popularity despite the challenges posed by the recent war and reconstruction delays. The article notes that many municipalities were won uncontested, reflecting a strategy to maintain control. In contrast, The Times of Israel highlights the ongoing Israeli airstrikes and the precarious situation in Southern Lebanon, emphasizing the complex dynamics at play as Hezbollah seeks to assert its influence amid external pressures. Mohanad Hage Ali from the Carnegie Middle East Center suggests that the elections indicate Hezbollah's enduring support among Shia constituents, despite the war's toll on its military capabilities. This sentiment is echoed across multiple sources, illustrating the multifaceted nature of Hezbollah's political standing in Lebanon.
How we got here
The elections followed a devastating war with Israel from October 2023 to November 2024, which severely impacted Hezbollah's standing. The group's financial support has also been affected by the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and increased scrutiny at the Lebanese-Syrian border.
Go deeper
- What were the main challenges Hezbollah faced in these elections?
- How did the recent war impact voter sentiment?
- What are the implications of these election results for Lebanon's future?
More on these topics
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Lebanon, officially known as the Lebanese Republic, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered by Syria to the north and east and Israel to the south, while Cyprus lies west across the Mediterranean Sea.
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Hezbollah is a Shia Islamist political party and militant group based in Lebanon. Hezbollah's paramilitary wing is the Jihad Council, and its political wing is the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc party in the Lebanese parliament.
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Israel, formally known as the State of Israel, is a country in Western Asia, located on the southeastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea and the northern shore of the Red Sea.
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Joseph Khalil Aoun is a Lebanese Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces since 2017.