What's happened
As of early September 2025, Russian forces continue incremental advances in eastern Ukraine, notably near Dobropillia and Donetsk, pressing Ukrainian defenses along a 1,000-kilometer front. Ukraine has reclaimed some villages and launched drone strikes on Russian territory, including a fire at a nuclear plant with no casualties. Peace talks remain stalled after Russia ruled out an immediate Putin-Zelensky summit despite ongoing prisoner exchanges and diplomatic efforts led by the US and European allies.
What's behind the headline?
Persistent Stalemate and Strategic Pressure
Russian forces continue a slow but steady push in eastern Ukraine, focusing on strategic locations such as Donetsk and Dobropillia. Despite some territorial gains, these advances are costly and met with strong Ukrainian resistance, reflecting a grinding war of attrition rather than decisive breakthroughs.
Tactical Shifts and Military Realities
Russia employs small infantry group tactics to infiltrate Ukrainian lines, aiming to exploit any breaches. However, Ukraine's fortified defensive belts and counterattacks have blunted major Russian advances. The incremental nature of gains underscores Moscow's challenges in sustaining large offensives amid effective Ukrainian drone and missile defenses.
Diplomatic Deadlock and Security Guarantees
Peace talks remain stalled, with Russia rejecting immediate bilateral summits and insisting on territorial concessions, particularly over Donetsk. Meanwhile, Ukraine and its allies are negotiating post-war security guarantees, including a multinational reassurance force, though Russia views foreign troops in Ukraine as legitimate targets.
Broader Geopolitical Implications
The conflict's persistence strains international relations, with countries like China, India, and North Korea playing roles that complicate Western diplomatic efforts. The war's continuation impacts global energy markets and security architectures, emphasizing the need for a durable resolution.
Forecast
The war will likely continue as a protracted conflict with incremental territorial changes. Diplomatic breakthroughs depend on reconciling Russia's territorial demands with Ukraine's sovereignty and securing credible security guarantees. The presence of foreign troops post-conflict remains a contentious issue that will shape future stability in the region.
What the papers say
The New York Post highlights the intensity of Russian drone attacks, noting that Donetsk suffered significant casualties and infrastructure damage, with Governor Vadym Filashkin reporting four deaths. It emphasizes Putin's focus on Donetsk as central to peace talks, quoting military intelligence that estimates 700,000 Russian troops deployed across Ukraine, mainly in Donetsk. The Post also reports Ukrainian President Zelensky's call for stronger sanctions and diplomatic pressure, including a nod to former President Trump's stance on restricting Russian energy trade.
Al Jazeera provides a detailed account of recent military developments, including Russia's capture of Markove and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. It covers Putin's warning that foreign troops in Ukraine would be legitimate targets and notes ongoing diplomatic efforts, including the "coalition of the willing" led by France to provide post-war security guarantees. The outlet also discusses the complex energy dynamics involving Slovakia and Hungary's continued Russian oil purchases despite EU phase-out plans.
AP News focuses on Putin's statements at the Eastern Economic Forum, where he dismissed the idea of peacekeeping forces in Ukraine after a final peace deal and reiterated that foreign troops would be targeted if deployed during ongoing fighting. It contrasts this with French President Macron's announcement of 26 countries pledging to deploy a reassurance force post-conflict.
The Moscow Times offers in-depth military analysis, describing Russia's incremental advances near Dobropillia and the challenges Moscow faces in consolidating gains. It cites military analysts who explain Russia's reliance on small infantry group tactics and Ukraine's strategy to delay Russian progress. The Times also reports on Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian territory, including attacks on oil refineries and a nuclear power plant fire with no casualties.
Together, these sources paint a picture of a conflict marked by slow, costly advances, persistent
How we got here
The conflict began with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, leading to intense fighting especially in eastern regions like Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk. Russia controls about 70% of Donetsk and seeks full control, while Ukraine fortifies key cities to resist. Diplomatic efforts, including US-led talks and prisoner swaps, aim to end the war but face obstacles as Russia demands territorial concessions and rejects immediate peace talks.
Go deeper
- What are the latest developments in the Donetsk region?
- How are peace talks progressing between Russia and Ukraine?
- What role are foreign countries playing in Ukraine's security guarantees?
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