What's happened
Chinese tourist arrivals to Japan increased slightly in November, rising 3% year-on-year, but declined 21.5% from October following China's travel warning amid diplomatic disputes over remarks on Taiwan. Despite this, overall Japanese tourism remains strong, with total arrivals surpassing 39 million in 2025.
What's behind the headline?
The recent slowdown in Chinese tourism to Japan reflects the tangible impact of diplomatic tensions over Taiwan. While overall Japanese tourism remains robust, with 2025 surpassing 2019 pre-pandemic levels, the decline in Chinese arrivals signals a potential shift in regional travel patterns. The 3% growth in November indicates resilience, but the 21.5% drop from October underscores vulnerability to geopolitical disputes. This situation demonstrates how diplomatic rhetoric can directly influence economic sectors like tourism, especially when China is Japan's largest source of visitors. The Japanese government’s ability to balance diplomatic relations with economic interests will be crucial in maintaining tourism growth. If tensions persist, Japan may need to diversify its tourism sources further to mitigate risks. The broader regional context suggests that geopolitical disputes could increasingly influence economic indicators, making diplomacy a key factor in economic planning and recovery strategies.
What the papers say
The Japan Times reports that November saw 562,600 Chinese visitors, a 3% increase year-on-year but a 21.5% decrease from October, following China's travel warning after Japan's comments on Taiwan. Reuters highlights that overall arrivals in Japan for 2025 have exceeded 39 million, with Chinese tourists still comprising nearly a quarter, despite the slowdown. The diplomatic dispute has affected Japanese stocks linked to tourism, such as department stores and theme parks. Meanwhile, Reuters also notes Vietnam's tourism boom, with arrivals surpassing 20 million in 2025, driven mainly by Chinese, South Korean, and US visitors, illustrating regional tourism shifts amid geopolitical tensions.
How we got here
In 2024, Japan saw a record 36.87 million visitors, with Chinese tourists making up nearly a quarter. Diplomatic tensions arose after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's comments on Taiwan, which prompted China to advise its citizens against travel to Japan. This diplomatic dispute has impacted Chinese tourism, traditionally Japan's largest foreign visitor group, amid broader geopolitical frictions.
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China, officially the People's Republic of China, is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population of around 1.4 billion in 2019.
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Japan is an island country of East Asia in the northwest Pacific Ocean. It borders the Sea of Japan to the west and extends from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea and Taiwan in the south.
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Sanae Takaichi is a conservative Japanese politician.