What's happened
International tourism to the US is projected to decline by 9.4% in 2025, a stark contrast to earlier forecasts of growth. Factors include political tensions, tariffs, and negative perceptions of the US abroad, particularly following Donald Trump's reelection.
What's behind the headline?
Key Factors Influencing Decline
- Political Climate: Trump's reelection has led to a perception of the US as unwelcoming, particularly among Canadians and Europeans.
- Tariffs and Trade Wars: Increased tariffs have raised costs for potential visitors, discouraging travel.
- Travel Cancellations: Reports indicate significant cancellations, especially from Canada, which is the largest source of international tourists to the US.
- Negative Sentiment: Polls show a growing unfavorable opinion of the US in key markets, with over half of respondents in several European countries expressing negative views.
Economic Implications
- Financial Losses: A projected $9 billion decrease in foreign spending could severely impact the hospitality and travel sectors.
- Job Risks: The US Travel Association warns that reduced Canadian travel could threaten 140,000 jobs in the hospitality industry.
Future Outlook
- Long-Term Effects: If current trends continue, international tourism may not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2029, affecting the broader economy.
What the papers say
According to AP News, Tourism Economics has revised its forecast for international arrivals to the US, now expecting a 9.4% decline instead of growth. Adam Sacks, the president of Tourism Economics, noted that recent high-profile detentions of tourists have contributed to a chilling effect on travel. The Independent highlights that the political climate under Trump, including tariffs and negative rhetoric, has led to a significant drop in Canadian visitors, with Air Canada reporting a 10% decrease in bookings to the US. The article also points out that negative perceptions of the US are at their highest since 2016, particularly in Western Europe, where unfavorable opinions have surged since Trump's reelection.
How we got here
The US has historically attracted millions of international visitors, with 66.5 million in 2023. However, recent political developments, including Trump's reelection and subsequent policies, have shifted global attitudes, impacting tourism forecasts for 2025.
Go deeper
- What are the main reasons for the decline in tourism?
- How are Canadian travelers reacting to the current situation?
- What could be the long-term effects on the US economy?
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