What's happened
As of September 2025, China leads a rapid green energy transition, investing $625 billion in renewables last year and dominating solar and battery manufacturing. This surge is reshaping global energy markets, enabling emerging economies to electrify faster than the US. Despite coal's continued role for grid stability, China's clean tech exports and investments are pressuring fossil fuel demand toward a likely structural decline by 2030.
What's behind the headline?
China's Green Transition Reshapes Global Energy
China’s aggressive investment in solar, batteries, and electric vehicles is not just a domestic policy but a global market strategy. By producing 60% of wind turbines and 80% of solar panels worldwide, China has driven down costs dramatically—solar module prices have dropped over 90% since 2010, reaching below 10 cents per watt. This scale enables emerging markets to leapfrog traditional fossil fuel reliance, with a quarter surpassing the US in electrification by 2023.
Coal’s Role Is Evolving, Not Ending
Despite record coal use during peak demand in summer 2025, this is a grid stability measure, not a policy reversal. China's rapid renewable capacity additions outpace grid absorption capabilities, causing curtailment of clean energy. Coal plants act as a 'shock absorber' to maintain reliability, while infrastructure upgrades aim to increase flexibility and storage.
Geopolitical and Economic Implications
China’s state-backed clean energy sector, expanding three times faster than its overall economy, has created a dominant export hub, investing $80 billion in overseas clean tech facilities. This challenges Western countries, which have responded with protectionist measures like the US Inflation Reduction Act focusing on domestic investments. Europe faces a critical need to invest €311 billion annually in power infrastructure to maintain competitiveness and energy security.
Forecast and Impact
If current trends continue, global fossil fuel demand will structurally decline by 2030, driven largely by China’s green transition and export strategy. This will pressure fossil fuel exporters and reshape global energy geopolitics. Consumers worldwide will benefit from cheaper renewable technologies, but grid modernization and policy coordination remain essential to sustain momentum and avoid reliance on fossil fuels as backup.
What the papers say
Bloomberg highlights the International Energy Agency's report suggesting fossil fuel demand may grow over the next 25 years, challenging net-zero ambitions. In contrast, Al Jazeera and The Japan Times emphasize China's transformative role, with Al Jazeera quoting Ember's Sam Butler-Sloss: "China produces 60 percent of global wind turbines and 80 percent of global solar panels," driving down costs and enabling global uptake. The Japan Times notes, "China’s surge in renewables and whole-economy electrification is rapidly reshaping energy choices for the rest of the world," predicting a likely structural decline in fossil fuel demand by 2030.
South China Morning Post explains the apparent contradiction of increased coal use during summer 2025 as a grid stability measure amid rapid renewable expansion, describing coal as a "shock absorber" rather than a climate policy reversal. Politico focuses on Europe's challenges, stressing the need for massive investments (€311 billion annually) in power infrastructure to ensure energy security and decarbonization, warning against misallocated funds and excessive regulatory burdens.
AP News provides a US state-level perspective, reporting a 1.5% rise in carbon emissions in Connecticut in 2023 due to increased fossil fuel use from nuclear outages, highlighting the fragility of clean energy progress amid infrastructure challenges and political rollbacks. This contrasts with the global narrative of China's green surge, underscoring regional disparities in energy transition progress.
How we got here
Global hopes for peaking fossil fuel use this decade face challenges as the International Energy Agency reports continued fossil fuel demand growth. China’s strategic pivot to renewables, embedded in its 2018 constitutional goal of an 'ecological civilisation,' has driven massive investments and manufacturing scale, influencing global energy economics and supply chains.
Go deeper
- How is China influencing global renewable energy markets?
- Why is coal still used in China despite renewable growth?
- What challenges does Europe face in energy infrastructure investment?
Common question
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Why Is China Accelerating Its Shift to Renewable Energy?
China is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity, surpassing demand in solar and wind power. This bold move is reshaping global energy markets and reducing reliance on fossil fuels. But what’s driving this acceleration, and what does it mean for the world? Below, we explore the reasons behind China’s green transition, its global impact, and the challenges faced by other regions in balancing energy security with decarbonization efforts.
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How Is China's Investment in Renewables Changing Global Energy Markets?
China's rapid shift towards renewable energy is transforming the global energy landscape. With massive investments and dominance in solar and wind manufacturing, China's leadership is influencing fossil fuel demand and accelerating electrification worldwide. But what does this mean for energy independence, fossil fuel decline, and emerging economies? Explore the key questions below to understand the full impact of China's green energy push.
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How Is China's Renewable Energy Investment Shaping the Future?
China's rapid push into renewable energy is transforming global markets and influencing the fight against climate change. With massive investments and dominance in solar and battery manufacturing, China's energy shift raises important questions about the future of global energy, other countries' progress, and the impact on climate efforts worldwide. Below, we explore the key questions about China's role in shaping the future of renewable energy.
More on these topics
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China, officially the People's Republic of China, is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population of around 1.4 billion in 2019.