What's happened
As of January 20, 2026, Iran faces its largest protests in years, sparked by economic collapse and political repression. Over 2,600 deaths and nearly 20,000 arrests have been reported amid a harsh government crackdown and nationwide internet blackout. US President Donald Trump has urged continued protests, imposed 25% tariffs on Iran's trading partners, and is considering military options, escalating international tensions.
What's behind the headline?
Geopolitical and Domestic Dynamics
The protests in Iran represent a critical juncture for the Islamic Republic, exposing deep economic vulnerabilities and widespread public discontent. The regime's response—marked by lethal force, mass arrests, and information suppression—reflects its determination to maintain control but risks further alienating the population.
US Strategy and Risks
President Trump's approach combines economic sanctions, public calls for regime change, and the looming threat of military action. While tariffs aim to isolate Iran economically, military strikes carry significant risks, including civilian casualties and regional escalation. Trump's ambiguous promise of "help is on its way" fuels uncertainty and may embolden protesters but also harden regime resistance.
Foreign Influence and Covert Operations
Allegations of Israeli and US intelligence involvement in supporting protests underscore the geopolitical stakes. Israel's history of covert operations in Iran and recent military strikes heighten tensions, while Iran accuses foreign powers of fomenting unrest. This dynamic complicates prospects for peaceful resolution and increases the risk of proxy conflicts.
Economic Collapse and Social Unrest
Iran's economy, crippled by decades of sanctions, corruption, and recent military conflicts, underpins the unrest. The rial's collapse and rising living costs have transformed economic grievances into a broader political challenge. The internet blackout has further crippled economic activity, potentially reducing GDP by up to 10% if prolonged.
Outlook
Without significant foreign intervention or internal reform, the regime is likely to continue its harsh crackdown, risking prolonged instability. International diplomatic efforts remain limited amid escalating rhetoric and sanctions. The protests may persist but face suppression unless a decisive shift occurs, either through internal fractures or external pressure.
What the papers say
The Independent reports at least 2,637 deaths and 20,000 arrests, highlighting the brutal crackdown and the regime's use of internet blackouts to suppress information. It details the economic triggers, including the rial's collapse and fuel price hikes, and notes the regime's violent response, including executions such as that of Erfan Soltani (Bel Trew, The Independent).
Al Jazeera provides a detailed economic context, emphasizing the impact of sanctions, inflation, and environmental crises on the protests. It also discusses the geopolitical dimension, including US and Israeli covert activities and the potential consequences of foreign intervention (Brian Osgood, Al Jazeera).
The Times of Israel and SBS focus on US President Donald Trump's rhetoric and policy moves, including his calls for continued protests, cancellation of meetings with Iranian officials, and imposition of 25% tariffs on Iran's trading partners. They also report on the ambiguity surrounding potential military action and the US administration's internal deliberations (The Times of Israel; SBS).
France 24 analyzes the military options under consideration by the US, the risks of strikes in densely populated areas, and the potential for escalation with Iran's missile capabilities and regional proxies. It also highlights contrasting expert opinions on the likely impact of US intervention (Benjamin Dodman, France 24).
The New York Times and The New Arab provide insights into the communication blackout's partial easing and the challenges in verifying casualty figures, as well as the complex diplomatic signals from Tehran and Washington (Abdi Latif Dahir, New York Times; The New Arab).
Together, these sources illustrate a multifaceted crisis involving economic collapse, political repression, international power plays, and uncertain prospects for resolution.
How we got here
The protests began in late December 2025 after Iran's currency plunged to record lows, worsening an already dire economic crisis marked by inflation and fuel price hikes. The unrest quickly expanded into nationwide anti-government demonstrations, fueled by longstanding grievances over political repression, corruption, and the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini in police custody. Iran's government responded with a brutal crackdown, including mass arrests, executions, and an internet blackout.
Go deeper
- What triggered the recent protests in Iran?
- How is the US government responding to the unrest in Iran?
- What are the risks of military intervention in Iran?
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Why is Iran cracking down on protests and what are the international reactions?
Iran is currently experiencing one of its most intense waves of protests in years, sparked by economic hardship and political unrest. The government's response has been harsh, with reports of mass arrests and executions. Meanwhile, the international community is closely watching, with the US warning Iran of potential consequences. But what exactly is happening, and what could it mean for Iran and global politics? Below, we explore the key questions surrounding Iran's crackdown and the worldwide reactions.
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Iran, also called Persia, and officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered to the northwest by Armenia and Azerbaijan, to the north by the Caspian Sea, to the northeast by Turkmenistan, to the east by Afghanistan a
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