What's happened
A global heat wave trend persists into August 2026. July saw record or near-record sea surface and air temperatures across Europe and globally. Scientists warn that accelerating warming and a strong El Niño are increasing the odds that 2026 will be the hottest year on record.
What's behind the headline?
Key insights
- El Niño and warming are reinforcing each other, pushing global temperatures higher. This combination is likely to keep heat extremes going through the end of the year.
- Western Europe is seeing a multi-month heat spike, with heat waves and drought stressing water supplies and agriculture.
- Health systems are preparing for higher heat-related morbidity and mortality, while policymakers face pressure to adapt infrastructure and energy use.
Questions for readers
- How are your local water and energy usage patterns adapting to the heat?
- What safeguards are in place to protect vulnerable populations this summer?
Outlook
- With persistent high-pressure systems and reduced soil cooling, heat events may become more frequent and intense in coming months. Readers should monitor local advisories and stay hydrated.
How we got here
Since May 2026, temperatures have surged worldwide, with record July sea-surface temperatures and Western Europe experiencing unprecedented heat and drought. El Niño conditions and human-caused warming are driving more extreme heat and weather extremes, leading to wildfires and health risks.
Our analysis
Copernicus Climate Change Service reports record July sea-surface temperatures; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts comments on persistent heat and drought. The Times of Israel, BBC Business, Independent, The Guardian provide corroborating context on regional impacts and projections.
Go deeper
- What steps are local authorities taking to mitigate heat risks?
- How might El Niño conditions influence energy demand this winter?
More on these topics
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France - Country in Europe
France, officially the French Republic, is a country consisting of metropolitan France in Western Europe and several overseas regions and territories.
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Spain - Country
Spain, officially the Kingdom of Spain, is a country in Southwestern Europe with some pockets of territory across the Strait of Gibraltar and the Atlantic Ocean. Its continental European territory is situated on the Iberian Peninsula.
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Italy - Country in Europe
Italy, officially the Italian Republic, is a sovereign country consisting of a peninsula delimited by the Alps and surrounded by several islands. Italy is located in south-central Europe, and is considered part of western Europe.
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Germany - Country in Europe
Germany, officially the Federal Republic of Germany, is a country in Central and Western Europe. Covering an area of 357,022 square kilometres, it lies between the Baltic and North seas to the north, and the Alps to the south.
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United Kingdom - Country in Europe
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom or Britain, is a sovereign country located off the northwestern coast of the European mainland.
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El Niño
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, including the area off the Pacific coast of South America.
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Europe - Region in Europe
Central Europe is the region comprising the central part of Europe. Central Europe occupies continuous territories that are otherwise sometimes considered parts of Western Europe, Southern Europe and Eastern Europe.
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European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Intergovernmental
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is an independent intergovernmental organisation supported by most of the nations of Europe and is based at Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom, and Bologna, Italy, and Bonn, Germany.