What's happened
The WTO reports a significant upward revision in merchandise trade growth for 2025 to 2.4%, driven by AI-related goods and resilient trade among developing countries. Predictions for 2026 are lowered to 0.5%. The report highlights trade dynamics amid tariffs and economic shifts, with a focus on regional impacts.
What's behind the headline?
The WTO's upward revision signals a robust recovery in global merchandise trade, primarily fueled by artificial intelligence-related goods such as semiconductors and telecommunications equipment. This surge indicates that trade resilience is increasingly dependent on technological sectors rather than traditional commodities.
The report underscores the importance of strategic import behaviors, such as front-loading orders ahead of tariff hikes, which have temporarily bolstered trade figures despite ongoing headwinds. The surge in U.S. inventories and imports, especially in pharmaceuticals and precious metals, exemplifies this trend.
The notable growth in South-South trade, particularly among emerging economies, suggests a shift towards more diversified and resilient regional trade networks. This trend is likely to continue, reducing dependence on traditional trade partners like China.
However, the forecast for 2026 shows a slowdown to 0.5%, reflecting cautious optimism amid geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties. The lower projection indicates that while current growth is strong, sustained expansion will require addressing structural challenges and maintaining technological innovation.
Overall, the story reveals a complex picture: technological innovation and regional cooperation are driving growth, but global trade remains vulnerable to policy shifts and economic headwinds. The resilience observed in 2025 will be tested in the coming year, with policymakers needing to balance innovation with stability.
What the papers say
The articles from AP News, The Independent, Bloomberg, and Gulf News collectively highlight the recent positive revisions in global trade forecasts, emphasizing the role of AI-related goods and regional trade dynamics. AP News and Bloomberg focus on the upward revision to 2.4% for 2025 and the slowdown forecast for 2026, citing the WTO's analysis of trade resilience and technological demand.
The Independent echoes these points, emphasizing the role of AI and strategic responses to tariffs, while also noting the slowdown in growth predictions for 2026. Meanwhile, Gulf News offers regional context, indicating that Middle Eastern economies are less affected by global trade tensions, with growth expected to remain steady due to diversification and internal reforms.
Contrasting opinions are minimal, as all sources align on the core message of a resilient, AI-driven trade recovery, tempered by cautious forecasts for the future. The Gulf News adds a regional perspective, suggesting that internal reforms and diversification are key to sustained growth, which complements the global outlook provided by the other sources.
How we got here
Trade forecasts have fluctuated over the year, with initial concerns of decline replaced by optimism due to AI-driven demand and strategic responses to tariffs. The WTO's latest assessment reflects a recovery from earlier setbacks, emphasizing the role of emerging markets and technological sectors in sustaining growth.
Go deeper
Common question
-
Is Global Trade Really Rebounding in 2025?
Global trade has shown signs of recovery this year, driven by technological advances and resilient regional economies. But is this trend sustainable? What factors are fueling this growth, and what does the future hold? Below, we explore the latest insights into trade trends for 2025 and what experts predict for 2026.
-
What Are the Biggest News Stories Today?
Stay informed with the latest headlines shaping the world today. From international conflicts to regional incidents, these stories are capturing global attention. Curious about how these events connect or what they mean for you? Read on for clear, concise answers to your most pressing questions about today's top news.
More on these topics
-
The World Trade Organization is an intergovernmental organization that is concerned with the regulation of international trade between nations.
-
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (, Igbo pronunciation: [ŋ́gɔ́zí òkóꜜńdʒó ìwáàːlà] ; born 13 June 1954) is a Nigerian economist who has been serving as the director-general of the World Trade Organization since March 2021. She is the first ever woman