What's happened
Recent off-year elections in New Jersey, Virginia, New York City, and California show most voters disapprove of Trump’s performance and view him as a negative influence. Trump’s impact was limited, with many voters citing him as a factor against candidates, especially in California where opposition was strongest.
What's behind the headline?
Voter Sentiment and Trump’s Influence
Most voters in key states like New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City report that Trump was 'not a factor' in their voting decisions, indicating his limited direct influence. However, among those who did consider him, a significant portion opposed him, especially in California where about half of voters expressed opposition to Trump’s policies.
Political Implications
The results suggest that Trump’s backing is not a decisive factor for many voters, even among Republicans. While a majority of Republican voters in Virginia and New Jersey approve of his performance, they do not see him as a primary motivator in these elections. This disconnect could impact future GOP strategies, especially as Trump’s loyalty remains a litmus test for candidates.
Broader Context
The elections highlight a pattern where voters tend to oppose Trump’s influence, especially in Democratic-leaning areas. The low approval ratings for Trump’s leadership—around 4 in 10 in Virginia and New Jersey, and even lower in California and New York—underscore his diminished standing nationally. These trends foreshadow potential challenges for Trump and his allies in upcoming races, as opposition to his policies continues to shape voter behavior.
Forecast
The limited impact of Trump’s endorsement and presence suggests that future elections may hinge more on local issues and candidate qualities than on Trump’s influence alone. However, his continued prominence in the GOP landscape will likely complicate candidate selection and campaign messaging, especially if opposition to him persists.
What the papers say
The Times of Israel reports that most voters disapprove of Trump’s performance and see his approach as too aggressive, especially on immigration. The AP News highlights that in key races, Trump was largely a non-factor, with many voters explicitly opposing him. Both sources note that Trump’s influence is waning, with voters in Democratic strongholds disapproving of his leadership and many Republican voters not citing him as a primary motivator. The AP emphasizes that Trump’s impact was more pronounced in California, where voters opposed his efforts to redraw districts, and in New Jersey and Virginia, where his influence was minimal. The coverage suggests a growing disconnect between Trump’s base and the broader electorate, which could influence future GOP strategies and election outcomes.
How we got here
The elections follow nearly 10 months of Trump’s return to the White House, amid widespread disapproval of his leadership and policies. These races serve as a barometer for public sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms, with Trump’s influence being a key factor in voter behavior. The results reflect broader trends of opposition to Trump’s approach, especially on immigration and leadership style.
Go deeper
More on these topics
-
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
-
Giacchino Michael "Jack" Ciattarelli is an American politician and businessman. A member of the Republican Party, he served in the New Jersey General Assembly from 2011 to 2018, representing the 16th legislative district.
-
Rebecca Michelle "Mikie" Sherrill ( MY-kee SHERR-əl; born January 19, 1972) is an American politician, former naval officer, and former federal prosecutor who is the governor-elect of New Jersey. A member of the Democratic Party, she defeated Republican.
-
Barack Hussein Obama II is an American attorney and politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the first African American President of the United States. He previously serve
-
Philip Dunton Murphy is an American financier, diplomat and politician serving as the 56th Governor of New Jersey since January 2018. A member of the Democratic Party, he defeated then Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno in the 2017 gubernatorial election.
-
Zohran Kwame Mamdani is a Ugandan-American politician. He is the assembly member for the 36th district of the New York State Assembly. Mamdani was elected after defeating incumbent Democrat Aravella Simotas in the 2020 primary.