SpaceX’s stock calms after IPO surge

What's happened

SpaceX has seen its volatility ease since debut, hovering around a $140 level as investors absorb amplified capex plans and a new Louisiana launch base. Morgan Stanley argues the stock could gain from Starship expansion, while some investors remain bearish on valuation.

What's behind the headline?

Quick take

SpaceX has transitioned from the most volatile large-cap stock to a more steady performer as investors digest capex and scaling plans.
Louisiana’s Starbase proposal is positioned as a potential growth catalyst, with Morgan Stanley assigning a bullish price target and 113% earnings growth forecast for FY28.
The stock remains sensitive to capex guidance, with traders pricing in directional bets via options that reflect a still-elevated implied volatility.

What’s changing

Investors are reassessing SpaceX’s path after the lockup period’s end and the company’s ongoing capital expenditure plans.
Analysts see more clarity on fundamentals after Q2 results, though opinions diverge on whether the stock is overvalued.

What to watch

Execution of Starbase in Louisiana and its impact on launches and revenue growth.
How SpaceX’s capex trajectory affects margins and cash flow over the next 12-24 months.
Broader market reaction to SpaceX’s inclusion in major indices and its effect on liquidity.

How we got here

SpaceX’s IPO frenzy has cooled after a monster debut; the company has spooled into a calmer trading range as index inclusion and insiders’ stakes damp volatility. Morgan Stanley now argues that a new $100 billion Starbase facility in Louisiana could become a major growth catalyst, while the White House and lawmakers continue to scrutinize federal contracts and regulatory path.

Our analysis

- CNBC reports that SpaceX’s implied volatility has fallen to 57 from above 120 pre-earnings, with a nascent rally in options volume as investors weigh bets on a $16 move in the next month. - Business Insider UK highlights Morgan Stanley’s $100 billion Starbase plan in Louisiana and a bullish outlook on SpaceX stock, with a price target of $300 and 113% growth in FY28 forecasts. - TechCrunch notes SpaceX’s stock performance around IPO pricing amid government contracts and ongoing regulatory considerations.

Go deeper

Will SpaceX’s Louisiana project actually lift long-term shareholder value?
How might continued capex impact margins if launch cadence accelerates?
What does inclusion in Nasdaq-100 and Russell 1000 mean for liquidity and volatility?