What's happened
The UN's WMO has warned a record-breaking hot year is likely to occur by 2030 as El Niño strengthens, with 2027 potentially setting a new global heat record. The latest report notes rising fossil-fuel emissions and intensifying heatwaves across Europe and beyond, underlining the urgency of cutting emissions and accelerating clean energy adoption.
What's behind the headline?
Key takeaways
- The projection that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest on record has a high likelihood, driven by El Niño and ongoing greenhouse gas emissions.
- The Arctic is warming more rapidly than the global average, which compounds regional climate impacts and could affect weather patterns across Europe.
- Adaptation and decarbonisation remain central: clean power is increasingly cheaper and faster to deploy than fossil fuels, but emissions reductions are still urgently needed to limit damage.
What this means for readers
- Heat risk is likely to rise in coming years, affecting health, infrastructure, and economies.
- Individuals and businesses should consider accelerating energy efficiency, cooling resilience, and transition to low-carbon energy sources.
- Policymakers face pressure to intensify climate action and invest in adaptation to mitigate growing costs of extreme heat and weather events.
How we got here
WMO and UK Met Office researchers have forecast that El Niño could push global temperatures higher over the next five years, increasing the probability of new heat records between 2026 and 2030. The coming winters in the Arctic are expected to be significantly warmer, while rainfall patterns point to wetter northern Europe and drier Amazon regions in the near term.
Our analysis
The Guardian, May 27-28, 2026 reports from Damian Carrington and Jon Henley summarize WMO findings and UN climate chief comments. The Independent and other outlets provide contemporaneous context on May heat records and CCC adaptation recommendations.
Go deeper
- What steps are you taking to adapt to extreme heat in your area?
- How soon should households upgrade insulation or cooling to cope with hotter seasons?
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