What's happened
Mexico's homicide rate fell to 17.5 per 100,000 in 2025, the lowest since 2016, down from a peak of 29 in 2018. President Claudia Sheinbaum credits a new security strategy focused on interagency coordination, though data reliability remains uncertain amid ongoing violence and missing persons reports.
What's behind the headline?
The decline in Mexico's homicide rate signals a significant shift in security dynamics, but the full picture remains complex. While official figures show a 40% drop since Sheinbaum took office, experts warn that data collection inconsistencies and underreporting of missing persons cloud the true extent of violence reduction. The reported decrease may partly reflect criminal groups consolidating control, reducing open conflict but not eliminating organized crime. The focus on interagency coordination and intelligence suggests a strategic move away from militarized tactics, which historically escalated violence. However, states like Sinaloa and Jalisco still face intense cartel activity, indicating that organized crime remains a major challenge. The reported figures could influence policy and U.S.-Mexico relations, especially given ongoing pressure to curb drug trafficking and violence. The true impact will depend on the government's ability to sustain these security gains and improve data transparency, which remains a critical issue for assessing long-term progress.
What the papers say
AP News reports that the homicide rate decreased from 29 per 100,000 in 2018 to 17.5 in 2025, attributing the decline to a strategy based on coordination among security forces and justice institutions. The Independent highlights that the rate is the lowest since 2016, with Sheinbaum noting a 40% drop since September 2024, but cautions that official data is incomplete and that violence persists in several states. Reuters emphasizes that December 2025 saw the lowest daily homicide average since 2016, with Sheinbaum asserting her government's strategy is producing results. All sources agree that while the homicide rate has declined, issues like missing persons and clandestine graves indicate ongoing violence and instability.
How we got here
Homicide rates in Mexico surged after 2006, driven by military campaigns against drug cartels. Under President López Obrador, violence increased further, but Sheinbaum's administration, since October 2024, has shifted to a security approach emphasizing intelligence and coordination, aiming to reduce violence amid persistent organized crime activity.
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Common question
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Why Did Mexico's Homicide Rate Drop to 2016 Levels?
Mexico has seen a significant drop in its homicide rate, reaching levels not seen since 2016. This decline raises questions about what caused it and whether it will last. Many wonder if new security strategies are working or if other factors are at play. Below, we explore the reasons behind this trend, the measures taken by authorities, and what it means for Mexico's future safety.
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How Does Mexico's Security Strategy Compare to Other Latin American Countries?
Mexico has seen a significant drop in homicides, reaching levels not seen since 2016. This shift raises questions about how Mexico's approach to security stacks up against other Latin American nations. Are their strategies similar? What lessons can be learned from Mexico's recent success? Below, we explore these questions and more to understand regional trends in crime and safety.
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Lebanon's recent move to disarm Hezbollah and other non-state groups marks a significant shift in its security landscape. This development raises questions about how such reforms will influence neighboring countries and regional tensions. Will Lebanon's efforts lead to greater stability or spark new conflicts? Below, we explore the key questions surrounding this major security reform and its broader implications.
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Mexico, officially the United Mexican States, is a country in the southern portion of North America. It is bordered to the north by the United States; to the south and west by the Pacific Ocean; to the southeast by Guatemala, Belize, and the Caribbean Sea
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Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo ( born 24 June 1962) is a Mexican politician, energy and climate change scientist, and academic who is the 66th and current president of Mexico since 2024. She is the first woman and the first Jewish person to hold the office....
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