What's happened
The average cost of a traditional Christmas dinner in the UK has decreased slightly to £32.46, driven by lower prices on frozen turkey and parsnips. Despite ongoing inflation, retailers are increasing promotions to support shoppers, amid economic pressures and high food prices, especially for chocolate and fresh meat.
What's behind the headline?
The current holiday shopping landscape reveals a complex picture of resilience and adaptation. Retailers are leveraging promotions and premium own-label products to maintain sales amid inflation, which remains stubbornly high. The slight decrease in the cost of a Christmas dinner masks underlying pressures, notably the 18.4% rise in chocolate prices driven by climate-related cocoa shortages. This suggests manufacturers are balancing cost increases with smaller product sizes or reduced cocoa content, impacting consumer choice.
Online shopping continues to expand, with Ocado reaching a record market share, yet physical stores still dominate, especially during peak shopping days like December 22-23. The rise in promotional spending indicates retailers’ strategic effort to sustain consumer spending despite economic uncertainty. The divergence in spending patterns—higher-income households spending more at premium stores while middle-income consumers seek value—foreshadows a segmented holiday market.
Looking ahead, sustained inflation and climate impacts will likely keep food prices volatile. Retailers’ promotional strategies will be crucial in maintaining sales, but the overall economic pressures suggest a cautious holiday season with potential for further price fluctuations and shifting consumer behaviors.
What the papers say
The Independent reports that the average Christmas dinner now costs £32.46, a slight decrease from last year, with promotions playing a key role in supporting shoppers facing inflation. Sky News highlights that the cost of a traditional turkey dinner has fallen slightly, driven by lower prices on frozen turkeys and parsnips, but chocolate prices have surged 18.4%, reflecting climate impacts on cocoa supply. The Guardian emphasizes the rising cost of chocolate and other trimmings, noting manufacturers’ tactics to reduce cocoa content. Meanwhile, the New York Times and other US sources detail record online holiday spending, with consumers leveraging discounts, buy-now-pay-later, and AI tools amid economic uncertainty. These contrasting reports illustrate a global pattern of resilient consumer spending, despite inflation and supply chain challenges, with a notable shift toward online shopping and promotional deals.
How we got here
Recent data shows grocery inflation remains high at 4.7%, with food prices rising due to climate impacts on cocoa and supply chain issues. Retailers are heavily promoting products to attract consumers facing financial strain, while online sales continue to grow despite a dominant brick-and-mortar sector. The UK’s Christmas food prices have fluctuated, with some items like frozen turkey becoming cheaper, but others like chocolate and fresh produce increasing in cost.
Go deeper
Common question
-
Are holiday shopping costs rising and how are consumers coping?
This holiday season, many shoppers are noticing that prices are climbing, especially for food and gifts. Despite inflation, people are still spending more online and in stores, using discounts and buy-now-pay-later options to manage costs. But what’s driving these price increases, and how are consumers adapting? Below, we explore the main factors behind rising holiday shopping costs and how shoppers are responding to economic challenges.
-
How Are Rising Holiday Costs and Inflation Affecting Your Shopping?
With inflation pushing up prices across the board, many shoppers are wondering how this holiday season will impact their spending habits. From rising food costs to online shopping trends, understanding these economic shifts can help you plan better. Below, we answer common questions about the effects of inflation and rising costs on holiday shopping in the US and UK, and what it means for your holiday budget.
-
Why Are UK Christmas Food Prices Dropping This Year?
Many shoppers are noticing that Christmas food costs in the UK are slightly lower this year. Despite ongoing inflation and supply chain issues, some items like frozen turkey and parsnips are cheaper, and retailers are offering more promotions. But what’s behind these changes, and what should you expect when shopping for your holiday feast? Below, we explore the reasons for the price drops, which items are more affordable, and how retailers are supporting consumers during this festive season.
More on these topics
-
Black Friday may refer to:
-
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021.
-
Lidl Stiftung & Co. KG is a German international discount supermarket chain that operates over 10,000 stores across Europe and the United States.
-
Tesco plc, trading as Tesco, is a British multinational groceries and general merchandise retailer with headquarters in Welwyn Garden City, Hertfordshire, England, United Kingdom.