What's happened
Polls aggregating AP-NORC data show independents without a college education have shifted from a majority view of Trump to about 25% approval, erasing the education gap among independents. The decline spans groups including Black and Hispanic independents and coincides with broader midterm dynamics.
What's behind the headline?
Brief
- AP-NORC data show independents have become uniformly negative toward Trump, erasing the pre-office education gap.
- Positive views among independents without a college degree drop from 48% pre-return to 31% in the first 100 days; college-educated independents fall more modestly.
- Hispanic independents and younger independents are especially disenchanted; around 46% of Hispanic independents view Trump favorably around the election, dropping to the mid-20s subsequently.
What this means
- Independents will likely influence midterm outcomes as their support for Trump declines regardless of education.
- The shifts complicate Republican attempts to rebuild coalitions, especially among groups that leaned Democratic before 2024.
Forecast
- If trends persist, expect headlines highlighting a broad, still-fragile independent base that is turning away from Trump, potentially signaling challenges for Republican messaging ahead of 2026 elections.
How we got here
The AP-NORC analysis aggregates nearly two dozen polls from July 2024 to April 2026, tracking independents’ views as Trump returns to office and as major events—such as the government shutdown and the Iran war—shape public opinion. The findings suggest independents, a pivotal voter bloc, are increasingly negative toward Trump regardless of education level as his second term unfolds.
Our analysis
AP-NORC Centre for Public Affairs Research; The Associated Press; The New Arab describe the polling trajectory and demographic breakdowns with quotes from researchers such as Tafari Torres and Sean Collins.
Go deeper
- Are independents shifting due to specific policy events or broader Republican leadership?
- Will this erosion among independents affect Trump’s fundraising and campaign strategy?
- How might Hispanic independents’ shifts influence outreach in swing states?
More on these topics
-
Donald Trump - 45th and 47th U.S. President
Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who is the 47th president of the United States. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 45th president from 2017 to 2021.