What's happened
Independents without a college degree have seen a sharp drop in support for Trump since his return to office, erasing the education gap among independents and signaling challenges for Republicans ahead of midterm elections. Polls show declines in Trump’s favorability and presidential approval across key groups, including Black and Hispanic independents, with broader concerns about the economy.
What's behind the headline?
Brief
- Independents are swiftly moving away from Trump, reducing a previous education-based split in their views.
- No single demographic remains immune; declines are seen among independents without a college degree, Black independents, and Hispanic independents.
What’s driving this?
- The polling shows a reaction to policy outcomes and broader governance concerns, with independents re-evaluating Trump’s economic stewardship and handling of national issues.
What happens next?
- The erosion of independent support could reshape midterm outcomes as independents influence a pivotal share of swing districts. Expect continued polling volatility as campaigns target independent voters.
How we got here
Several AP-NORC polls since July 2024 track changing independent attitudes toward Trump, revealing a steady decline in approval and favorability across education levels and demographics. The shift accelerates through 2025 into 2026, diminishing the once-stable coalition that aided Trump’s 2024 victory.
Our analysis
The New York Times Business reports a data-driven shift in independent sentiment, including a notable drop in Trump’s approval among non-college-educated independents. AP News/ NORC data corroborate the trend, detailing declines among Black and Hispanic independents and a general waning of positive views on Trump’s economy. Independent voters are a decisive group in midterms, and these shifts pose a challenge to the Trump coalition.
Go deeper
- Are independents likely to shift campaign strategy in the next phase?
- What economic issues are driving independents away from Trump?
- How might this affect Republican candidate prospects in swing states?
More on these topics
-
White House - Official residence and office of the President of the United States
The White House is the official residence and workplace of the president of the United States. Located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW in Washington, D.C., it has served as the residence of every U.S. president since John Adams in 1800 when the national...