What's happened
A brief warm spell in the UK has peaked with temperatures reaching up to 18°C, but cooler, wetter weather is expected to return by Thursday. The mild conditions were driven by southerly winds, with forecasts indicating a shift to more unsettled spring weather amid ongoing climate change concerns.
What's behind the headline?
The UK’s brief warm spell underscores the influence of climate change on seasonal weather patterns. The record-high temperatures for late February, driven by a southerly flow, are consistent with projections of increased variability and intensity in weather events. While the current warm period offers a temporary respite, the forecast of cooler, wetter conditions signals a return to typical spring instability. This pattern reflects a broader trend where warmer atmospheres hold more moisture—about 7% more per degree Celsius—leading to heavier downpours and increased flood risks. The Met Office’s emphasis on the changeable outlook and the ongoing risk of flooding highlights the need for adaptive infrastructure and preparedness. The recent drop in flood warnings suggests some relief, but the persistent saturated ground and climate-driven storm intensity mean that flood risks will remain elevated into March. This weather cycle exemplifies how climate change is not only causing more extreme weather but also complicating seasonal forecasts, making it harder for communities to plan and adapt effectively. The UK’s experience is a microcosm of global trends, where rising temperatures are accelerating the transition into more unpredictable and extreme weather regimes, with significant implications for public safety and environmental management.
What the papers say
Sky News reports that the UK experienced a brief period of above-average temperatures, peaking at 18°C, driven by southerly winds and high pressure, but warns that cooler, wetter conditions will return soon. The Independent highlights that this warm spell follows the hottest day of the year so far, with forecasts indicating a return to near-normal temperatures by the end of the week, accompanied by increased rain and flood risks. Both sources emphasize the role of climate change in amplifying weather variability, with Sky News noting that heavier downpours are a consequence of a warmer atmosphere capable of holding more moisture. The BBC adds that the recent milder weather is part of a broader pattern of rapid seasonal change, with the last similar warm spell occurring in November 2025, and stresses that flood risks remain due to saturated ground. Overall, these reports collectively illustrate a pattern of short-term warmth punctuated by a return to unsettled conditions, driven by climate change and atmospheric dynamics.
How we got here
Recent weather patterns in the UK have been influenced by a combination of low pressure to the west and high pressure to the east, creating a southerly flow that brought milder temperatures. This change follows a very wet winter, with climate change contributing to increased moisture in the atmosphere, leading to heavier rainfall and more intense storms. The UK’s transition into spring typically involves rising temperatures and longer daylight hours, but recent anomalies highlight the impact of global warming on seasonal weather variability.
Go deeper
Common question
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Why Did the UK Experience a Brief Warm Spell?
Recently, the UK saw a short-lived warm spell with temperatures reaching up to 18°C. Many wonder what caused this sudden rise in temperature and whether such weather patterns are becoming more common. In this page, we'll explore the reasons behind this warm spell, how climate change is influencing UK weather, and what to expect in the coming weeks.
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Is the UK’s Warm Spell Part of a Climate Change Trend?
Recent UK weather has seen a brief warm spell with temperatures reaching up to 18°C, followed by a return to cooler, wetter conditions. Many wonder if this pattern is just seasonal or part of a larger climate change trend. Understanding how climate change influences UK weather can help you prepare for what’s ahead and answer questions about the changing seasons and weather patterns.
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The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, commonly known as the United Kingdom or Britain, is a sovereign country located off the northwestern coast of the European mainland.
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The Meteorological Office, abbreviated as the Met Office is the United Kingdom's national weather service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy led by CEO Penelope Endersby, who took on