Russia struggles with fuel shortages

What's happened

Ukraine has intensified drone strikes on Russian refineries, depots and fuel convoys. Russia has introduced local rationing, banned gasoline and jet-fuel exports, and is weighing a diesel export ban while opening antitrust probes, forming an industry task force and planning imports and subsidies to stabilise supplies.

What's behind the headline?

What's really happening

• Ukraine's drones have disrupted multiple parts of Russia's fuel chain: refineries, depots and tanker convoys. This is reducing gasoline output and forcing regional rationing.

How Russia is responding

• Officials are reallocating refinery capacity, postponing maintenance and forming a government-industry task force to monitor supplies.
• Authorities are pursuing antitrust probes into traders and considering subsidies and import programmes to cap domestic pump prices.

Strategic consequences

• Russia will increase imports of refined fuel by sea and seek outside suppliers if it cannot repair capacity quickly; Kremlin statements now admit such discussions are taking place.
• A full diesel export ban will redirect volumes to the domestic market and will tighten global diesel supply, raising prices internationally.

Near-term forecast

• Fuel shortages will persist through the summer travel and agricultural seasons while damaged refinery units are repaired; output reductions reported are large (roughly 15–25% in recent weeks).
• Regional rationing and targeted prioritisation for emergency services and agriculture will continue. Imports and subsidies will ease local shortages but will not fully replace lost refinery capacity this season.

Wider implications

• Continued strikes will force Moscow to choose between greater militarisation of convoy protection, deeper export curbs, or costly imports that will strain public finances and fuel inflation. These options will change Russia's domestic economic management and its role in global fuel markets.

How we got here

Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil infrastructure and supply lines since spring. Repeated drone attacks have damaged major refineries and halted production, forcing Russia to shorten maintenance, redirect crude to domestic refineries and impose regional rationing and export curbs to protect the domestic market.

Our analysis

Politico reports Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying "Discussions are actively being held" about importing fuel and that imports "would proceed if agreements could be reached 'at acceptable price points'" (Politico, 30 Jun). Reuters cited industry sources saying Russia's gasoline output has fallen about 25% from June 2025 averages and that Moscow has discussed import subsidies to cap prices; Reuters also reported regional measures such as curfews and dimmed street lighting in Sevastopol (Reuters, 23 Jun). The Moscow Times has documented the damage to a Gazprom Neft refinery near Moscow — two attacks on June 16 and 18 that industry sources say damaged units accounting for 53% and 47% of capacity — and quoted Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying the situation is "challenging but under control" while describing possible diesel export restrictions and a plan to force direct deliveries to domestic refineries (The Moscow Times, 24 Jun). Regional and local reporting in The Japan Times, Al Jazeera and Sky News provides ground detail on queues, rationing rules and the tourism hit in Crimea: Al Jazeera recorded long lines and spot prices in Crimea, and Sky News reported many petrol stations closed in resort towns (Al Jazeera, 15 Jun; Sky News, 12 Jun). Bloomberg and other outlets have supplied data on retail price rises, with Russia's average petrol price rising to about 69.11 rubles per litre in mid-June (Bloomberg, 17 Jun). These accounts combine: official Kremlin and ministerial commentary; industry sourcing on damage and output declines; and local reporting on rationing and social impacts.

Go deeper

• How long will Russia need to repair damaged refinery units?
• Which countries could supply imported fuel by sea to Russia?
• How will a diesel export ban affect global diesel markets?

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