American think tank in international affairs
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased in recent days and several VLCCs have loaded in the Gulf, easing supply fears and pushing Brent below $75. President Trump has instructed the Justice Department to examine whether gasoline retailers are passing on falling crude prices, but analysts warn pump prices will decline slowly.
The United States is scaling back European deployments as part of a broader retrenchment from the NATO alliance, prompting cancellations of troop rotations in Poland and shifts in force posture. Officials say the moves aim to align with a new security posture, while opponents warn of raised tensions with Russia and strains on allied readiness.
The UAE is reported to have agreed to unlock billions of dollars of Iranian assets as part of a tentative peace framework with the United States. The UAE denies releasing funds, while Washington and Tehran remain engaged in talks that could see tens of billions in Iranian revenues unfrozen. Reports vary on amounts and timing, prompting swift official rebuttals.
At the Group of 7 summit, Donald Trump has denied U.S. investment in a proposed $300 billion Iran reconstruction fund and has criticized past deals with Tehran. Officials say the agreement would reopen Hormuz, lift oil export restrictions temporarily, and push nuclear talks into a 60-day phase. Other leaders warn of broader financial relief being extended to Iran.
A ceasefire deal has halted fighting across parts of the Middle East, but Iranians react with exhaustion and mixed hope. Protesters face a challenging path ahead as the ceasefire takes hold amid hard-liner opposition and ongoing domestic strain.
Iraq has set a 30 September deadline for pro-Iran armed groups to disarm, aligning with the end of the US-led coalition’s mission. The government says weapons outside state control will face legal redress after that date, as it pushes to integrate PMF factions into official forces amid ongoing US pressure.
Vance and Rubio have divergent views on Middle East policy, with Vance criticizing Israel over Lebanon-related actions and Rubio backing Israel, as White House and State Department deny any rift. Negotiations with Iran continue under their oversight as the administration touts unity.