U.S. government agency that provides official macroeconomic statistics
Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, led by nonstore retailers and motor-vehicles, easing momentum for second-half growth. Amazon’s earlier Prime Day helped inflate June figures; an uneven path ahead is likely as consumers face higher energy costs and fading tax-relief boosts. Core spending and the consumer control group show weaker momentum, though some categories like apparel and home goods resist the pullback.
A mix of mortgage rates remaining elevated and inventory growth is shaping US and UK housing markets. Cash sales have cooled, financed buyers are gaining ground, and prices show modest changes in several markets. Analysts warn of continued affordability challenges and potential further rate-related pressure.
The United States has reached a historic debt level, driven by Iran tensions and tariffs. Higher debt issuance is lifting bond yields, pushing mortgage rates higher and increasing monthly payments. Homebuyers face a slower market as rates stay elevated amid near-record home prices, while employment remains strong and demand could rebound if rates ease.
The latest BEA data indicate the core PCE price index has cooled to a 3% annual pace, with monthly gains easing to 0.2%–0.3% in recent readings. Analysts say the Fed’s path remains uncertain as inflation cools but stays above target.