U.S. government agency producing official macroeconomic statistics
GDP growth has slowed to 1.5% in Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1, as a trade deficit widens and petrol prices spike. Consumer spending remains resilient, while AI investment continues to push capital formation and imports, dampening net exports. Fed kept rates unchanged amid inflation concerns, with midterm elections approaching.
Trump has visited California to headline a Republican National Committee dinner, touting his economic record and contrasting it with California leadership. He is also set to travel to Nevada to deliver remarks on the economy, while opponents argue over inflation, crime and minimum wage policies. The trip underscores a broader national debate about economic performance ahead of the 2026 midterms.
A block of UK indicators shows services activity expanding and consumer confidence firming, while manufacturing remains modest. PMI readings point to continued growth in Q3, supported by tech investment and exports, though inflation and public finances remain a risk.
A mix of mortgage rates remaining elevated and inventory growth is shaping US and UK housing markets. Cash sales have cooled, financed buyers are gaining ground, and prices show modest changes in several markets. Analysts warn of continued affordability challenges and potential further rate-related pressure.
Mortgage costs are drifting higher amid rising swap rates and gilt yields driven by inflation and geopolitical tensions. Homebuyers are urged to fix rates now as remortgaging comes due for hundreds of thousands in 2026.
The latest BEA data indicate the core PCE price index has cooled to a 3% annual pace, with monthly gains easing to 0.2%–0.3% in recent readings. Analysts say the Fed’s path remains uncertain as inflation cools but stays above target.