U.S. government agency that provides official macroeconomic statistics
GDP growth has slowed to 1.5% in Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1, as a trade deficit widens and petrol prices spike. Consumer spending remains resilient, while AI investment continues to push capital formation and imports, dampening net exports. Fed kept rates unchanged amid inflation concerns, with midterm elections approaching.
Trump has visited California to headline a Republican National Committee dinner, touting his economic record and contrasting it with California leadership. He is also set to travel to Nevada to deliver remarks on the economy, while opponents argue over inflation, crime and minimum wage policies. The trip underscores a broader national debate about economic performance ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, led by nonstore retailers and motor-vehicles, easing momentum for second-half growth. Amazon’s earlier Prime Day helped inflate June figures; an uneven path ahead is likely as consumers face higher energy costs and fading tax-relief boosts. Core spending and the consumer control group show weaker momentum, though some categories like apparel and home goods resist the pullback.
A mix of mortgage rates remaining elevated and inventory growth is shaping US and UK housing markets. Cash sales have cooled, financed buyers are gaining ground, and prices show modest changes in several markets. Analysts warn of continued affordability challenges and potential further rate-related pressure.
The United States has reached a historic debt level, driven by Iran tensions and tariffs. Higher debt issuance is lifting bond yields, pushing mortgage rates higher and increasing monthly payments. Homebuyers face a slower market as rates stay elevated amid near-record home prices, while employment remains strong and demand could rebound if rates ease.
The latest BEA data indicate the core PCE price index has cooled to a 3% annual pace, with monthly gains easing to 0.2%–0.3% in recent readings. Analysts say the Fed’s path remains uncertain as inflation cools but stays above target.