Independent U.S. regulator of derivatives markets since 1974
New York state officials have filed a state Supreme Court lawsuit against Kalshi, alleging the prediction market platform operates illegally without a Gaming Commission license, endangers consumers, and should forfeit gains and pay restitution and penalties. The action adds to a broader clash over how prediction markets are regulated between states and the federal government.
State prosecutors allege Kalshi has offered prediction markets without a license, exposing New York residents to financial risk and evading taxes. The suit seeks to block operations in New York and restitution for affected customers, as regulators clash over federal preemption and state authority.
Nvidia has announced memorandums with six Wall Street firms to assemble about $500 billion to finance AI infrastructure — data centres, GPU clusters and related compute — for customers that lack cash or credit. Executives are pitching compute as an investable asset class while analysts warn depreciation risk and competition from China could erode collateral value.
Trump Media & Technology Group has launched Truth API, a paid, millisecond‑latency feed selling prioritized access to posts from the platform's top accounts to institutional clients, including high‑frequency trading firms and news organisations. The feed has already been linked to large, rapid market moves and has drawn legal and congressional scrutiny over conflicts of interest.
Washington state has obtained a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, barring most wagers on sports, elections, and related topics. Kalshi must implement geofencing by Sept. 2 and faces penalties if it fails. The case highlights a clash between state regulators and federal oversight over prediction markets, with the CFTC declaring a market emergency amid pressure from New York’s lawsuit.
Bloomberg and Al Jazeera reporting show a widening pattern of transshipment and tariff avoidance, with solar-panel routes rerouted across China, Vietnam and Indonesia to dodge duties, while US actions intensify enforcement and scrutiny.
Bitcoin has moved higher, aided by a surge in crypto stocks after the Treasury Department signs a plan to double debt buybacks. The rally has buoyed Bitcoin toward the low $70,000s, but remains below the mid-January and all-time highs. Democrats and Republicans debate regulatory scope as the Clarity Act looms, with the market awaiting further clarity.
Bitcoin has risen as Treasury buybacks boost yields and crypto investors rally in expectations of policy clarity. Regulators push for a crypto framework while markets price in potential upside and risks amid hawkish macro signals.
A wave of court rulings on prediction markets, led by Kalshi, has put federal and state regulators at odds. The Ninth Circuit has ruled Nevada may apply its gaming laws to Kalshi’s sports-event contracts, a decision echoed by other circuits as litigation intensifies. The Supreme Court is likely to weigh in as cases diverge.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has ordered former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez to repay $107,539.02 in profits, pay a $65,000 civil penalty and accept a three‑year trading ban after finding he used advance access to presidential speeches to place bets on Kalshi between December 2025 and February 2026. The CFTC credited his cooperation and KalshiEXfor assisting the probe.
Prediction-market platform Kalshi has permanently banned George Santos and fined him $71,356 after its compliance team concluded he traded on contracts tied to his attendance at President Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address and manipulated prices with public statements. The CFTC has already secured a separate $35,000 settlement and a three‑year trading ban.
Bill Simmons’s disclosure that a proxy bet was placed for him in Massachusetts has sparked scrutiny of online sports betting rules. Regulators are reviewing the practice, and FanDuel has voided the bets and reported the matter. The case highlights how location and account rules shape betting activity.
Prediction markets tied to elections and sports have surged, with record volumes and new entrants. Regulators warn of manipulation risks as platforms expand amid ongoing court battles over their legality.
A procedural vote on the Clarity Act has failed to reach the 60-vote threshold in the Senate, leaving the crypto-regulation bill in limbo as lawmakers head into the midterms. The measure, which would establish a federal framework for digital assets, faces divided support and ongoing opposition over ethics provisions and broader regulatory concerns.
Bitcoin has lingered near two-year lows around $60,000 after a lengthy decline from its 2025 peak. A recent rebound faded amid doubts over a Federal Reserve rate hike and a crypto bill in the U.S. Clarity Act. CoinEx is winding down operations with withdrawals open until December as regulators push stricter rules. Trading volumes have slumped, suggesting waning market participation, while industry watchers warn that higher regulatory costs and competition from AI could sustain pressure.
New York State has filed a lawsuit against Polymarket, alleging the platform operates illegal gambling without a license and targets underage users. The suit seeks penalties, restitution, and an order to halt unlicensed operations, following similar actions against Kalshi and other platforms. Polymarket defends its business, saying it engages with regulators and aims to protect consumers.
Leverage funds linked to the yen have contracted sharply in recent weeks. Bloomberg reports that traders held about a555.9 billion in bullish yen bets in the week to Sept. 22, down almost 80% from the prior week. Analysts have adjusted yen forecasts amid BOJ policy shifts and expected capital inflows.
The Sixth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate Kalshi's sports-event contracts under state gambling laws. The court found Kalshi’s contracts do not meet the statutory definition of “swap” and rejected the argument that federal law preempts state gambling rules. The decision adds to a circuit split on the issue and follows recent rulings in other circuits.
The NFL is urging the Supreme Court to allow states to regulate sports-prediction markets, arguing these contracts are gambling rather than financial swaps. The league cites $1.8 billion in first-weekend activity and calls for safeguards including a 21-year age minimum for bettors, while defending the CFTC’s federal oversight and highlighting integrity concerns.
The Pentagon has issued a memo barring all Defense Department personnel from using nonpublic information to place bets on prediction markets. The move follows cases where service members and contractors faced charges related to bets tied to operations, including Maduro’s ouster. Authorities warn that such trading can warp judgment and jeopardize operational security.
The NBA has expanded its partnerships to include Kalshi and Polymarket for official prediction markets, while maintaining safeguards on market types and integrity. A memorandum with the CFTC underpins the framework, with additional restrictions on league personnel trading and on certain event contracts.
External spending by super PACs has surged in the 2026 cycle, with billionaire donorship – led by Elon Musk – driving heavy bets on key races. Spending is increasingly shifting to streaming and digital ads, complicating disclosure while shaping Senate and House contests ahead of Election Day.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has opened a renewed inquiry into Polymarket’s past safeguards to block U.S. users, focusing on location-detection and U.S. advertising. The probe is part of broader CFTC actions and follows previous settlements and later developments in the company’s US platform and marketing practices.