U.S. derivatives regulator
Minnesota has enacted a state ban on prediction markets, criminalizing creation, operation or advertising of such markets starting Aug. 1. The move has triggered a federal lawsuit from the CFTC, which argues the state oversteps its authority and undermines federal regulation. The ban centers on markets tied to sports, elections, and other future events, with penalties up to five years in prison and fines for operators.
Federal investigators are examining whether George Santos placed bets on Kalshi about his own attendance at the State of the Union, with the trades flagged by the market and referred to the DOJ and CFTC. Santos has previously been convicted and pardoned, and his current status is under scrutiny as prediction markets face regulatory pressure.
Kalshi has started collecting job information to screen markets at heightened risk of manipulation and is rolling out a risk-scoring system plus 24/7 whistleblower channel. The measures aim to curb insider trading after a string of cases across Kalshi and Polymarket, including investigations into George Santos and a Google insider-trading case.
U.S. forces have carried out an airstrike that has killed Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, known as Niño Guerrero, the leader of Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, U.S. and Venezuelan officials have said. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and President Donald Trump have said the operation targeted a compound in Bolívar state earlier this week and involved coordination with Venezuelan security forces.
Kalshi has launched U.S. trading of perpetual futures, marking a milestone for the platform after regulatory approval. In the first 24 hours, volume surpassed $100 million, eventually crossing $1 billion within a week as traders flock to perps that track asset prices with no expiration date.
Michael Burry has built positions in Flutter and DraftKings, arguing regulation and taxation will force prediction markets to fit under broader rules. He says the market is in a regulatory loophole and will be subsumed by tighter oversight as enforcement rises.
The White House has placed Gabriel Perez, a teleprompter operator who has worked for the president since 2016, on unpaid administrative leave after Kalshi flagged suspicious bets tied to words in presidential speeches. Kalshi has referred trades to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and has frozen more than $90,000 in accounts while regulators investigate.
Regulators in France and the United States are clamping down on online prediction markets amid worries about betting on real-world events and misuse of information. France blocks Polymarket’s site for advertising, while ANJ warns fines could reach 100,000 euros. Separate cases involve a teleprompter operator accused of betting on Trump speeches and a US soldier charged over bets tied to a Maduro operation.
Courts have blocked Minnesota’s prediction market ban, while federal agencies push for broader regulation and states push back. The cases test federal preemption versus state gambling authority, with ongoing litigation and potential appeals shaping the future of event-contract markets.
New York has filed a state Supreme Court lawsuit against Kalshi, arguing the prediction-market platform operates illegally without a Gaming Commission license, endangers consumers, and should forfeit illicit gains and pay restitution and penalties. The suit marks a broader clash between state authorities and federally regulated platforms over prediction markets.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has settled with George Santos, banning him from trading for three years, and ordering him to forfeit more than $17,000 and pay a $17,500 penalty for trading on Kalshi bets about the State of the Union attendance. Santos’s lawyer says the resolution puts this matter behind him, with no admission of wrongdoing.
State prosecutors allege Kalshi has offered prediction markets without a license, exposing New York residents to financial risk and evading taxes. The suit seeks to block operations in New York and restitution for affected customers, as regulators clash over federal preemption and state authority.
Truth API has launched a real-time data feed for Truth Social posts to institutional clients, enabling near-instant access for high-frequency traders. Several outlets report on its revenue ambitions, potential market impact, and regulatory scrutiny as investors watch how this service shapes trading dynamics.
Nvidia has partnered with six leading asset managers to back a $500 billion push to finance AI infrastructure, including data centers and GPU clusters. The financing platforms treat AI compute as an investable asset class, with potential to reshape who bears the cost of the AI buildout.
The Intercept and Freedom of the Press Foundation have filed a federal suit in Manhattan alleging President Trump has sold priority access to market-moving official posts through Truth Social’s new Truth API. The plaintiffs say the paid feed gives traders and others faster access to presidential announcements and violates the First and Fifth Amendments; Trump Media calls the claims censorship.