Independent U.S. regulator of derivatives markets since 1974
The White House has placed Gabriel Perez, a teleprompter operator who has worked for the president since 2016, on unpaid administrative leave after Kalshi flagged suspicious bets tied to words in presidential speeches. Kalshi has referred trades to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and has frozen more than $90,000 in accounts while regulators investigate.
Regulators in France and the United States are clamping down on online prediction markets amid worries about betting on real-world events and misuse of information. France blocks Polymarket’s site for advertising, while ANJ warns fines could reach 100,000 euros. Separate cases involve a teleprompter operator accused of betting on Trump speeches and a US soldier charged over bets tied to a Maduro operation.
Courts have blocked Minnesota’s prediction market ban, while federal agencies push for broader regulation and states push back. The cases test federal preemption versus state gambling authority, with ongoing litigation and potential appeals shaping the future of event-contract markets.
New York state officials have filed a state Supreme Court lawsuit against Kalshi, alleging the prediction market platform operates illegally without a Gaming Commission license, endangers consumers, and should forfeit gains and pay restitution and penalties. The action adds to a broader clash over how prediction markets are regulated between states and the federal government.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has settled with George Santos, banning him from trading for three years, and ordering him to forfeit more than $17,000 and pay a $17,500 penalty for trading on Kalshi bets about the State of the Union attendance. Santos’s lawyer says the resolution puts this matter behind him, with no admission of wrongdoing.
State prosecutors allege Kalshi has offered prediction markets without a license, exposing New York residents to financial risk and evading taxes. The suit seeks to block operations in New York and restitution for affected customers, as regulators clash over federal preemption and state authority.
Truth API has launched a real-time data feed for Truth Social posts to institutional clients, enabling near-instant access for high-frequency traders. Several outlets report on its revenue ambitions, potential market impact, and regulatory scrutiny as investors watch how this service shapes trading dynamics.
Nvidia has announced memorandums with six Wall Street firms to assemble about $500 billion to finance AI infrastructure — data centres, GPU clusters and related compute — for customers that lack cash or credit. Executives are pitching compute as an investable asset class while analysts warn depreciation risk and competition from China could erode collateral value.
Trump Media & Technology Group has launched Truth API, a paid, millisecond‑latency feed selling prioritized access to posts from the platform's top accounts to institutional clients, including high‑frequency trading firms and news organisations. The feed has already been linked to large, rapid market moves and has drawn legal and congressional scrutiny over conflicts of interest.
Washington state has obtained a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, barring most wagers on sports, elections, and related topics. Kalshi must implement geofencing by Sept. 2 and faces penalties if it fails. The case highlights a clash between state regulators and federal oversight over prediction markets, with the CFTC declaring a market emergency amid pressure from New York’s lawsuit.
Bloomberg and Al Jazeera reporting show a widening pattern of transshipment and tariff avoidance, with solar-panel routes rerouted across China, Vietnam and Indonesia to dodge duties, while US actions intensify enforcement and scrutiny.
Bitcoin has moved higher, aided by a surge in crypto stocks after the Treasury Department signs a plan to double debt buybacks. The rally has buoyed Bitcoin toward the low $70,000s, but remains below the mid-January and all-time highs. Democrats and Republicans debate regulatory scope as the Clarity Act looms, with the market awaiting further clarity.
Bitcoin has climbed this week as the Treasury Department doubles long-dated debt buybacks, easing yields and attracting buyers across crypto and risk assets. Trump pushes a crypto bill while inflation and debt concerns loom; analysts see potential for further gains but warn of a reversal if hawkish signals prevail.
A wave of court rulings on prediction markets, led by Kalshi, has put federal and state regulators at odds. The Ninth Circuit has ruled Nevada may apply its gaming laws to Kalshi’s sports-event contracts, a decision echoed by other circuits as litigation intensifies. The Supreme Court is likely to weigh in as cases diverge.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has ordered former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez to repay $107,539.02 in profits, pay a $65,000 civil penalty and accept a three‑year trading ban after finding he used advance access to presidential speeches to place bets on Kalshi between December 2025 and February 2026. The CFTC credited his cooperation and KalshiEXfor assisting the probe.
Prediction-market platform Kalshi has permanently banned George Santos and fined him $71,356 after its compliance team concluded he traded on contracts tied to his attendance at President Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address and manipulated prices with public statements. The CFTC has already secured a separate $35,000 settlement and a three‑year trading ban.
Bill Simmons’s disclosure that a proxy bet was placed for him in Massachusetts has sparked scrutiny of online sports betting rules. Regulators are reviewing the practice, and FanDuel has voided the bets and reported the matter. The case highlights how location and account rules shape betting activity.
Prediction markets tied to elections and sports have surged, with record volumes and new entrants. Regulators warn of manipulation risks as platforms expand amid ongoing court battles over their legality.
A procedural vote on the Clarity Act has failed to reach the 60-vote threshold in the Senate, leaving the crypto-regulation bill in limbo as lawmakers head into the midterms. The measure, which would establish a federal framework for digital assets, faces divided support and ongoing opposition over ethics provisions and broader regulatory concerns.
Bitcoin has lingered near two-year lows around $60,000 after a lengthy decline from its 2025 peak. A recent rebound faded amid doubts over a Federal Reserve rate hike and a crypto bill in the U.S. Clarity Act. CoinEx is winding down operations with withdrawals open until December as regulators push stricter rules. Trading volumes have slumped, suggesting waning market participation, while industry watchers warn that higher regulatory costs and competition from AI could sustain pressure.
New York State has filed a lawsuit against Polymarket, alleging the platform operates illegal gambling without a license and targets underage users. The suit seeks penalties, restitution, and an order to halt unlicensed operations, following similar actions against Kalshi and other platforms. Polymarket defends its business, saying it engages with regulators and aims to protect consumers.
The yen has strengthened after officials signaled resolve to curb depreciation, with markets pricing in potential further policy steps. Analysts note that intervention and BOJ policy shifts are shaping the currency's path.
The Sixth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that Ohio and Tennessee can regulate Kalshi's sports-event contracts under state gambling laws. The court found Kalshi’s contracts do not meet the statutory definition of “swap” and rejected the argument that federal law preempts state gambling rules. The decision adds to a circuit split on the issue and follows recent rulings in other circuits.
The NFL is urging the Supreme Court to decide whether states should regulate sports-prediction markets or whether federal rules should apply. Multiple leagues face concerns about integrity, price manipulation, and age limits as Kalshi and Polymarket push into sports betting markets.