A price index measuring household consumption prices.
The economy has shown resilience as consumer spending rises while the Fed’s preferred inflation measure remains above target. GDP growth has decelerated from earlier in the year, and rate expectations remain uncertain amid energy price volatility tied to Middle East tensions.
Global stocks have rallied this month after officials reported progress in talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and a string of strong corporate earnings has bolstered investor sentiment. Treasuries and oil prices have fallen as traders pare back expectations for near-term Fed hikes; strategists warn valuations and one-off earnings boosts limit further upside.
The Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark rate steady in a nine-to-three vote, amid persistent inflation above the 2% goal. Dissenters argue for earlier tightening, while others urge patience; investors await July inflation data to gauge the path for policy.
U.S. markets edge lower after several sessions of gains as investors await the PCE inflation update. The latest data show persistent inflation and higher government borrowing costs, with bond yields climbing and stock indices uneven.
Oil prices have climbed with Brent above $95 and WTI near $93 as fighting in the Middle East continues to disrupt shipping routes. Analysts say supply fears and demand shifts, particularly from China, are shaping the rally. Markets are also awaiting inflation data and policy signals as bond yields rise globally.
Global government bond yields have risen to multi‑decade highs after renewed US–Iran fighting pushed Brent oil toward $90–$97 a barrel and raised inflation expectations. Markets are pricing tighter central‑bank policy; UK gilt yields and US Treasuries have climbed sharply, forcing higher mortgage and corporate borrowing costs and shrinking fiscal headroom for many governments.
The Independent reports a proposed, ongoing plan to boost Social Security benefits for most current beneficiaries, alongside changes to how future COLAs are calculated. The plan, part of Sanders’s Social Security Expansion Act, would tax earnings above $250,000 and is described as a response to long-term insolvency concerns facing the program. No start date is set, as the measure remains a proposal awaiting congressional action.
Oil prices have surged as tensions in the Middle East intensify, pushing Brent above $100 a barrel while U.S. stocks retreat amid higher energy costs. Traders await inflation data and Federal Reserve signals as markets reassess risk.
The US labor market has expanded in August, with 162,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate steady at 4.1%. Revisions to June and July numbers lift the three-month payroll gain, while gains are led by local government education and bars/restaurants. The data points to a persistent-but-modest hiring pace amid geopolitical strain and AI-related changes.
A run of fresh data shows the UK labour market remains resilient despite signs of cooling. Payrolls edge down; unemployment holds at 4.9%; wage growth remains mixed across private and public sectors, with vacancies at a post-pandemic low.
The Federal Reserve has raised rates by a quarter-point to 3.75%-4% in a unanimous decision. CPI data show a 5.9% monthly jump in wireless bills, contributing to higher core inflation. Analysts say the move is aimed at cooling inflation, while households face higher borrowing costs.
The latest BEA data indicate the core PCE price index has cooled to a 3% annual pace, with monthly gains easing to 0.2%–0.3% in recent readings. Analysts say the Fed’s path remains uncertain as inflation cools but stays above target.
The America.gov platform has used AI to answer government-service questions and has debunked some of Trump’s past claims, but responses have varied and sometimes refused to address political questions. The rollout shows guardrails influencing outputs, with later replies avoiding political commentary while still contradicting some claims in other instances.
The Social Security Administration has announced a 3.6% cost‑of‑living adjustment for 2027, the largest in three years, with benefits across Social Security and SSI set to rise starting January. The adjustment is tied to CPI‑W data and will affect roughly 72‑73 million beneficiaries, though many say the increase won’t fully offset inflation.
The CPI has risen to 3.7% over the past year, with a 0.6% monthly gain, driven by higher energy and fuel costs amid the Iran conflict. Core CPI has accelerated to 2.6%, complicating the Fed’s rate decisions as markets price in further hikes.
The Federal Reserve has shown no clear path for future rate moves as global central banks tighten. Officials emphasise they do not prejudge meetings, while data suggest inflation remains sticky. Markets are pricing in a likely hold at the October meeting, but risks of a December hike persist.
The government has maintained income tax thresholds at 2021 levels, creating fiscal drag as wages rise. The freeze is projected to lift the tax take by 2030, with adjustments forecast by the IFS. Banks and gambling machines are among options being considered to raise revenue.