American economist; Chief Economist at Grant Thornton LLP
Oil prices rose sharply following increased tensions in the Middle East, with WTI and Brent climbing over 8-14%. Markets reacted with volatility, as investors weigh the potential for supply disruptions and economic impacts amid ongoing Iran conflict and US political signals. The situation remains fluid as the war's duration and consequences unfold.
The Labor Department is expected to report April hiring at about 65,000 net new jobs, down from March's 178,000, with the unemployment rate staying near 4.3%. Analysts note a healthcare hiring boom and higher refunds from tax cuts are supporting demand, even as geopolitical tensions and energy costs weigh on growth.
The job market has shown renewed strength in May with robust hiring across multiple sectors, led by healthcare and leisure and hospitality. Unemployment remains near historic lows, even as inflation pressures persist and energy costs rise amid the Iran conflict. Analysts caution that hiring momentum varies by sector and region.
The Fed has maintained rates and launched a set of internal task forces under Warsh to overhaul communications, data usage, and inflation strategy, signaling a shift toward a Greenspan-era style of policy and increasing market volatility expectations.