American economist; Tolani Senior Professor at Cornell; Brookings senior fellow
China has expanded 4.3% year on year in Q2, the slowest pace in over three years. Exports have helped but domestic consumption remains sluggish, with a trade surplus widening as global demand for AI-driven goods supports shipments. Analysts caution that sustained growth depends on domestic demand improving.
Exports have accelerated in June and the first half of 2026, driven by AI and high-tech goods, while domestic spending and investment remain weak. IMF raises growth forecast to 4.6% for 2026, with 4.1% for 2027. Economists warn of an imbalanced growth model as state support and private investment channel into frontier tech.
A coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention in late July has only temporarily strengthened the yen. The currency has given back roughly half the gains from the operation and is trading near ¥159–¥160 to the dollar as of mid-August. Analysts say the yield gap between U.S. and Japanese debt and Japan's domestic policy mix are keeping downward pressure on the yen.
Top authorities have coordinated a yen intervention to stall a slide in the currency, a move that strengthens yen but leaves questions about long-term fiscal and monetary policy. The effort reflects growing geopolitical ties and a shared aim to curb disorderly moves that could threaten global markets.