Independent UK economic forecasters. Ey Item Club produces quarterly UK growth and policy outlooks and features in media for its recession and wage-trend warnings.
The ONS has shown wage growth in the private sector has slipped below 3% for the first time since 2020, with three-month vacancies dropping to 712,000. Unemployment remains at 4.9%, payroll numbers fall slightly, and market signals suggest softening conditions ahead as pay growth in the public sector keeps overall earnings above inflation.
The Item Club has warned that the UK faces a year of job losses driven by higher energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the Iran war, with South Wales and the Humber hardest hit. London, Birmingham, Leeds and Glasgow are also expected to shed thousands of posts as discretionary spending contracts.