Independent forecasting group shaping UK economic outlook
UK GDP and services activity have shown resilience in July, with PMI data suggesting expansion amid domestic tourism, World Cup effects, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Analysts expect growth to lift Q2 GDP, while uncertainty persists around inflation and policy.
The Item Club has warned that the UK faces a year of job losses driven by higher energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the Iran war, with South Wales and the Humber hardest hit. London, Birmingham, Leeds and Glasgow are also expected to shed thousands of posts as discretionary spending contracts.
The ONS has shown wage growth in the private sector has slipped below 3% for the first time since 2020, with three-month vacancies dropping to 712,000. Unemployment remains at 4.9%, payroll numbers fall slightly, and market signals suggest softening conditions ahead as pay growth in the public sector keeps overall earnings above inflation.