Federal Reserve: the U.S. central bank shaping interest rates, inflation, and financial stability; current focus includes rate paths amid market volatility.
The Federal Reserve has held rates as inflation remains above target; dissenters have pressed for earlier tightening while others call for patience. Markets are watching the inflation data due next week as traders adjust bets on the path for policy.
The Fed has signalled a shift in communication by reducing the traditional eight-meeting cadence as markets react to the chairman’s broader strategy. Critics warn of higher volatility, while supporters argue the move increases policy flexibility. Markets have priced in uncertainty as investors reassess the path to 2% inflation.
AP News reports a sluggish 1.5% second-quarter growth with consumer spending rising, inflation cooling but still above target, and mortgage rates at year highs as Iran conflict adds pressure on energy prices.
Markets are stabilising after a stretch of high activity in tech options, with traders shifting focus as implied volatility cools. Small caps are leading potential next moves, while global equities reflect a policy-led, carry-friendly regime.
The government has released June employment data showing payrolls rising by 57,000, far below forecasts, while the unemployment rate edges down to 4.2%. The labor force participation rate has fallen, highlighting a shift in the job market as fewer people are seeking work. Revisions to May and April data point to a softer hiring pace than previously thought.
A wave of commentary and policy proposals surrounding UK Prime Minister-in-waiting Andy Burnham is pushing for a radical economic and housing strategy. The debate centers on restoring aid targets, reforming tax, and expanding social housing, while markets monitor mortgage pricing and fiscal discipline.
E. Jean Carroll has received $5,625,005.48 that a 2023 jury awarded after finding Donald Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation. The funds had been held in a court-controlled escrow account while Trump exhausted appeals and sought last-minute delays; his legal team is continuing challenges tied to a separate $83.3m judgment.
The yen has weakened to multi-decade lows as US rates remain higher than Japan's. Intervention is being considered, but the long-running carry trade and energy costs keep downward pressure on the currency. Markets are watching potential official action and the broader implications for Japan's economy and global markets.
The US and Iran have exchanged fresh strikes this weekend and on Monday, reversing a recent interim ceasefire and re‑opening doubt over control of the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has declared the ceasefire "over," ordered further strikes and revoked a temporary oil waiver. Oil has jumped into the high $70s–$80s and global markets have fallen.
Fed minutes show policymakers are divided on whether to raise rates this year; markets are betting on a cautious path with speculation about AI inflation and Middle East tensions affecting decisions. Warsh has not provided a clear stand as minutes reflect a range of scenarios.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has convened five task forces to examine communications, data, the balance sheet, productivity, AI, and inflation frameworks. Leaders include Marc Andreessen, Doug McMillon, Mervyn King, Raj Chetty, and others. The groups will work with Fed staff and report to the FOMC, with changes expected by year-end.
Bank of America data show US host cities are seeing on-the-ground economic impact from the World Cup, with restaurants and bars leading spending gains and hotel revenues rising in several markets, though results vary by city and broader inflation weighs on sentiment.
Iraq’s prime minister travels to Washington to deepen economic ties as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and fighting between the US and Iran intensifies. Oil output, IMF talks, and potential US investment are on the table while Iran-backed groups push back against disarmament. Diplomatic prospects hinge on stabilizing energy flows and expanding state control over weapons.
Alphabet and peers are expanding AI data-center investments, driving up memory-chip prices and electricity costs while free cash flow turns negative for the quarter. Revenue remains strong as AI demand grows, but capital expenditure is set to rise into 2027.
Sterling has firmed on the day after oil prices surged amid Middle East tensions, with traders pricing in potential BoE support and a possible US rate move. Markets are eyeing UK gilts and the outlook for the government’s spending plans as the premiership transition nears.
SpaceX’s stock has fallen below its $135 initial-public-offering price, erasing a portion of post-IPO gains. Investors weigh near-term catalysts, including earnings and unlocking shares, against long-term growth bets in AI, Starlink, and ascent in space activities. Analysts remain split on valuation compared with fundamentals.
UK regulators are expanding Buy Now, Pay Later oversight. From July 15, BNPL providers must be authorised by the FCA, undergo affordability checks, and offer clearer information and complaint routes. The changes aim to protect consumers while preserving access to flexible payments.
The OECD has forecast the UK’s GDP will slow to 0.9% in 2026, down from 1.4% last year, citing energy costs and geopolitics. It stresses the need for reforms to boost productivity and address regional disparities, as energy prices remain a risk to growth.
Trump Media & Technology has unveiled Truth API, a paid low‑latency feed that will deliver real‑time posts from the platform’s top 10 accounts from Aug. 1. Executives discussed charging institutional customers up to $100,000 a month (or $60,000 on three‑year deals). Lawmakers, regulators and market participants have warned it will let traders profit from presidential posts and raise conflict‑of‑interest and market‑manipulation concerns.
Oil benchmarks have fallen sharply after US President Donald Trump has said he called off planned strikes on Iran and reported that talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will begin. Brent has dropped from above $100 to about $83 and US crude has fallen below $80, while markets and bond yields are reacting to lower geopolitical risk premiums.
Renewed US–Iran strikes and a US naval blockade have pushed oil above $90 a barrel and cut tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping, insurance and refining costs have surged faster than crude, lifting diesel and jet-fuel premiums and pushing US pump prices toward $4 a gallon; analysts warn sustained disruption will force further price rises.
Brent crude has fallen about 8–9% to below $88–$92 a barrel after prices briefly topped $100 last week. The drop follows pauses in US–Iran strikes and reports that both sides have halted attacks to allow diplomacy. Markets remain volatile because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea is still disrupted and analysts warn supply risks and inflationary pressure persist.
The central bank has kept the policy rate steady, citing price stability and a steady growth outlook amid global risks. Domestic growth remains solid, while inflation remains within the target band despite recent upticks.
Trump has attended the White House Correspondents’ Dinner after a postponement due to a gun attack outside the Washington Hilton. He uses the stage to critique the media, tout his resilience, and tease opponents, while noting heightened security and a smaller guest list.
President Trump has attended the rescheduled White House Correspondents' Dinner at the Waldorf Astoria, praised some journalists, mocked others and repeatedly attacked news organisations and named reporters. The event has followed the April shooting that forced the original dinner to be abandoned and featured tighter security and awards for reporters, including a Wall Street Journal team.
The latest reporting shows the United States and Israel sustaining pressure in a widening confrontation with Iran. Washington has paused strikes to allow for talks, while Tehran is signaling readiness to expand its operations in the region as talks with Oman progress on Hormuz security.
The United States has paused nightly airstrikes on Iran and Tehran has halted retaliatory attacks for at least two days while mediators from Qatar, Pakistan and Oman exchange messages. Advisers warned President Donald Trump that continued strikes risked depleting munitions and running out of targets; oil prices have fallen as markets price the lull.
The Federal Reserve has kept its target range at 3.5%-3.75%, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a quarter-point rate increase. Chair Warsh has emphasised inflation as a priority while signalling uncertainty about future moves. Markets have priced in possible action later this year as data rolls in.
The Federal Reserve has held rates steady under chair Kevin Warsh while signaling inflation remains above target. Markets are pricing in a potential rate hike later this year as dissents and communications style shape expectations.
The Federal Reserve has held its policy rate, with investors pushing yields higher amid concerns about inflation. Markets are signaling a harder path ahead, with oil prices rising and equities correcting after recent swings.
The White House has convened a meeting with AI leaders to review a proposed cybersecurity framework for advanced models, following OpenAI's recent agent hacks and calls for greater government access. Attendees include executives from Hugging Face, Anthropic, and others; Meta and Alphabet may participate. Markets show mixed responses as investors watch the policy discussion unfold.
Mortgage rates have risen to multi-month highs, with the 30-year fixed rate around 6.66-6.69% in late July/early August, according to Freddie Mac. Applications have declined, and refinancing demand remains weak as higher borrowing costs dampen homebuyer activity. Long-term yields reflect ongoing inflation concerns amid geopolitical tensions.
A high-profile AI-focused hedge fund has unwinded after massive leverage and a momentum crash. Citadel has stepped in to acquire many of its publicly traded holdings while the fund holds private investments, including Anthropic. Regulators and investors watch for how this affects AI infrastructure bets and market risk.
GDP growth has slowed to 1.5% in Q2, down from 2.1% in Q1, as a trade deficit widens and petrol prices spike. Consumer spending remains resilient, while AI investment continues to push capital formation and imports, dampening net exports. Fed kept rates unchanged amid inflation concerns, with midterm elections approaching.
Japan and the United States have conducted a coordinated yen-buying intervention after the currency fell to four-decade lows near ¥163. Officials have said the joint action has pushed the yen toward ¥156–157, that both sides remain ready to act again, and that Washington sold euros rather than dollars to fund its purchases to avoid disrupting US Treasury markets.
Authorities from the United States and Japan have joined a coordinated intervention to stabilize the yen, signaling a new phase in FX policy and geopolitics. The move aims to curb disorderly moves in the currency and reduce pressure on global bond markets, with potential ripple effects for funding currencies and carry trades.
The July jobs data show a fragile mix: unemployment remains low while long-term unemployment declines for the wrong reasons, and workers increasingly exit the labor force. Economists warn that this masks underlying weakness in hiring despite a steady headline unemployment rate.
Fed dissenters argue inflation remains too high and supply shocks persist; they advocate a series of small rate increases to curb inflation, while the majority holds rates steady. The coming months will test whether this hawkish push gains traction.
Nonfarm payrolls have declined slightly in July while the unemployment rate has fallen, driven by a drop in government employment and a shrinking labor force. Private payrolls rose, sending mixed signals about the health of the labor market and the Fed's next move.
US payrolls have fallen short in July, signaling a weak labor market. The unemployment rate ticked lower amid lower labor participation. Markets are adjusting rate expectations as investors weigh potential Fed action against slowing job growth.