Chemical element Au; dense, malleable metal shaping markets and value
The Bank of England has voted 8-1 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% and has published three scenarios showing higher near-term inflation because of the Iran war and energy-price shock. Governor Andrew Bailey has said the path for policy will depend on the size and duration of the energy shock; chief economist Huw Pill has dissented for a 0.25pp rise.
The AI-driven memory-chip rally has continued this week. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics have joined trillion-dollar valuations while the broader Kospi shows renewed volatility amid global AI market enthusiasm and new IPO chatter.
Global airlines face a sharp rise in jet-fuel costs as conflict in the Middle East pushes up oil prices. IATA now forecasts profits will fall sharply in 2026, driving airlines to raise fares and adjust routes while governments seek safety measures.
The ECB has raised its policy rate to 2.25% as inflation remains a concern amid a war-linked energy shock. Markets are watching next week’s meetings with the Fed, BOJ and BoE, with analysts signaling a cautious path ahead.
The World Bank has cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5% and has warned growth could fall to 1.3% if disruptions to oil and fertiliser flows from the Middle East persist. Rising energy and food costs are pushing inflation higher and hitting developing countries hardest; the bank has pledged up to $100bn in support.
Global markets hold steady as US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signals a cautious pause, with oil prices stabilising after recent falls. UK inflation data supports expectations of a hold on rates, while energy assets rally on easing supply concerns.
Markets are stabilising after a stretch of high activity in tech options, with traders shifting focus as implied volatility cools. Small caps are leading potential next moves, while global equities reflect a policy-led, carry-friendly regime.
Gold and silver have paused their retreat as hawkish central-bank signals and inflation fears weigh on the metals. Oil prices stay subdued, and markets eye key U.S. data on jobs and inflation to gauge the path of monetary policy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved little on the final trading day of June. This update covers developments through July 1, 2026.
Rwandan and Congolese officials remain locked in a dispute over commitments under a Washington-brokered peace deal, with UN experts noting M23 remains active and minerals continue to flow from conflict zones. Western governments have stepped up sanctions, and the ICJ case against Rwanda has widened the international response.
The Scotland 500 shows private equity now owns nearly 60% of listed Scottish firms, underscoring international investor interest in Scotland’s traditional sectors evolving into high-growth businesses. Origo and Vespa Capital are highlighted as unicorn ambitions, while BR-DGE expands beyond gaming to enterprise payments.
U.S. Treasury yields have fluctuated amid hawkish signals from Fed Chair Warsh and ongoing data momentum. Investors await key jobs data and FOMC minutes to gauge policy direction.
Gold has fallen from its 2025 peak as higher real yields and a firmer dollar weigh on prices, with analysts noting divergent drivers behind safe-haven demand and new forecasts suggesting limited upside this year.
The June 2026 US jobs report shows leisure and hospitality employment has fallen by 61,000, undermining expectations that the World Cup would spur hiring. Overall employment rose modestly, with revisions to May and April figures, and analysts weigh whether the tournament will lift local economies in other ways.
The US and Iran have exchanged fresh strikes this weekend and on Monday, reversing a recent interim ceasefire and re‑opening doubt over control of the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has declared the ceasefire "over," ordered further strikes and revoked a temporary oil waiver. Oil has jumped into the high $70s–$80s and global markets have fallen.
Jakarta authorities have conducted multiple raids across the capital and beyond, seizing 74 kg of gold and about $20 million as part of a corruption investigation linked to state power utilities and past fraud schemes. The probe follows arrests and a resignation by a top prosecutor connected to the case.
Treasury Secretary has unveiled a commemorative $1 coin bearing President Trump’s likeness for America’s 250th anniversary. The coin features a gold finish and a forward-facing Trump, prompting questions about living-person portraits on currency. Legal review and congressional oversight are centered on whether the design complies with federal law and existing coinage rules. The coin will be minted in Philadelphia this fall.