Welsh economist, chief economist, Bank of England (since 2021)
The Bank of England has raised Bank Rate to 4.0% and signals that more increases are likely as energy costs and wage pressures feed into prices. Analysts expect inflation to remain above target into next year, with scrutiny on energy prices and fiscal dynamics.
The United States has reached a historic debt level, driven by Iran tensions and tariffs. Higher debt issuance is lifting bond yields, pushing mortgage rates higher and increasing monthly payments. Homebuyers face a slower market as rates stay elevated amid near-record home prices, while employment remains strong and demand could rebound if rates ease.
Inflation in the UK has stayed elevated, driven by higher fuel and airfares, with analysts signaling the Bank of England will hold rates at 3.75% for a sixth straight meeting. A softer labour market and rising energy bills are shaping expectations for future moves.