Welsh economist, chief economist at the Bank of England since Sept 2021
The Bank of England has voted 8-1 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% and has published three scenarios showing higher near-term inflation because of the Iran war and energy-price shock. Governor Andrew Bailey has said the path for policy will depend on the size and duration of the energy shock; chief economist Huw Pill has dissented for a 0.25pp rise.
Bank of England has kept the benchmark rate at 3.75% while weighing the energy shock’s impact on inflation. Governor Bailey has cautioned that oil prices may push energy bills higher despite April CPI easing to 2.8%. The Bank’s stance signals caution on future policy moves amid ongoing supply shocks.
Central banks are maintaining cautious stances as inflation pressures persist. Officials have signalled that rate paths will be data-driven, with ongoing monitoring of energy prices and geopolitical risks. Market expectations hinge on inflation trends and the pace of growth.