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UK GDP and services activity have shown resilience in July, with PMI data suggesting expansion amid domestic tourism, World Cup effects, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Analysts expect growth to lift Q2 GDP, while uncertainty persists around inflation and policy.
Global bond yields have risen amid fears of inflation and political instability. The United States, Japan and the United Kingdom are facing higher borrowing costs as markets react to regional tensions and potential leadership changes.
Global markets hold steady as US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signals a cautious pause, with oil prices stabilising after recent falls. UK inflation data supports expectations of a hold on rates, while energy assets rally on easing supply concerns.
Official figures show unemployment at 4.9% in the three months to April with wage growth at 3.4% excluding bonuses and 4.4% including bonuses. Payrolled employment falls modestly; vacancies drop to the lowest in over five years. The data will keep BoE hawks watching as rate decisions loom.
China's official manufacturing PMI has edged into expansion at 50.3 in June from May's 50.0, with improvements in new orders and production. Export demand remains a key engine, while domestic consumption shows caution amid a prolonged property downturn. Analysts expect policy support to sustain momentum.
Markets are stabilising after a stretch of high activity in tech options, with traders shifting focus as implied volatility cools. Small caps are leading potential next moves, while global equities reflect a policy-led, carry-friendly regime.
Gold and silver have paused their retreat as hawkish central-bank signals and inflation fears weigh on the metals. Oil prices stay subdued, and markets eye key U.S. data on jobs and inflation to gauge the path of monetary policy. Yields on U.S. Treasuries have moved little on the final trading day of June. This update covers developments through July 1, 2026.
Oil prices have shifted as indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran inform expectations for Middle East supply. Markets show guarded optimism about a ceasefire framework and potential restoration of safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while inventories and production signals temper optimism.
Oil prices have fallen back as flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent near pre-war levels and traders citing improved supply and easing demand concerns amid China’s reduced imports. Markets warn the rally could resume if security holds and demand rebounds.
Gold has fallen from its 2025 peak as higher real yields and a firmer dollar weigh on prices, with analysts noting divergent drivers behind safe-haven demand and new forecasts suggesting limited upside this year.
Germany's government has unveiled a broad package of reforms, including €10 billion in annual tax relief for lower-income earners, pension overhauls, tighter sick-leave rules, and reduced bureaucracy. The plan, financed by raising the top tax rate for high earners, aims to boost growth and competitiveness but faces mixed reactions from unions and business groups as it seeks Bundestag and Bundesrat approval.
The June 2026 US jobs report shows leisure and hospitality employment has fallen by 61,000, undermining expectations that the World Cup would spur hiring. Overall employment rose modestly, with revisions to May and April figures, and analysts weigh whether the tournament will lift local economies in other ways.
Renewed US–Iran strikes and a US naval blockade have pushed oil above $90 a barrel and cut tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping, insurance and refining costs have surged faster than crude, lifting diesel and jet-fuel premiums and pushing US pump prices toward $4 a gallon; analysts warn sustained disruption will force further price rises.
ASIC confirms banks have mismanaged offset accounts, prompting millions in compensations and exposing risks as millions more are affected. The watchdog warns that linking and monitoring issues persist post-refinancing.
Japan and the United States have carried out a coordinated yen‑buying intervention after the currency fell to four‑decade lows near ¥163. Officials have said the joint action has pushed the yen toward ¥156–157, warned they will not hesitate to act again, and signalled support for faster Bank of Japan rate rises as markets watch Treasury yields and the yen‑funded carry trade.