American think tank on conflict and foreign policy
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has ground toward a halt this weekend as a 60‑day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has reached its expiry and negotiations remain stalled. Kpler data shows single‑digit daily transits; Iran has repeated demands that the U.S. lift its naval blockade, remove sanctions and pay reparations, while the U.S. says it can maintain the blockade indefinitely and is planning further economic pressure.
Ukraine has intensified attacks on Russia, striking Wildberries warehouses and other military-linked sites. Kyiv reports civilian casualties in Moscow region and Rostov, while Moscow confirms drone activity and airspace disruptions amid a broader campaign to disrupt Russia’s logistics and military supply chains.
Ukrainian drone strikes and falling drone debris have caused fires at multiple Russian oil facilities this month, including an oil terminal in Novorossiysk that has wounded two people and reported damage at Taganrog and Armavir. Kyiv has been carrying out long-range strikes to disrupt Russian oil exports and revenues.
Ukraine is deploying mid-range drone strikes to hit Russian warehouses, transport hubs and command posts up to 120–150 kilometers from the front, a shift that is changing logistics and front-line dynamics. Kyiv says these capabilities are expanding rapidly, with political leaders stressing intensified use this year.
Ukraine’s Third Army Corps has intensified pressure on Russian positions amid reports of fatigue in Moscow’s forces. Kyiv is pursuing a gradual, calculated push along the Donetsk fortress belt while leveraging drone technology and Starlink disruptions to limit Russian advances.
Russia has warned foreign citizens and diplomatic staff to leave Kyiv, saying it is preparing systematic strikes on decision-making centres, command posts and drone facilities after a weekend barrage. EU and several European states have summoned Russia's envoys and said the threats are an unacceptable escalation; diplomats in Kyiv have not publicly departed.
Russian defence spending remains a focal point as Moscow assesses a growing budget deficit amid extended conflict. Finance minister Siluanov has signalled possible cuts and redirection of resources, while state projections flag slower growth this year. Ukraine reports continued strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and cities.
The war in Ukraine is shifting. Ukrainian forces have tightened pressure on Russian positions in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, while Russia faces logistical strains and stalling advances. Kyiv is expanding long-range strikes, stressing Russian rear-area capabilities as Moscow maintains a systematic aerial campaign. Analysts warn that momentum is fragile and the next months will test both sides.
British, French and German ambassadors have met Russian officials to press for direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv after the E3 leaders backed Zelenskyy’s proposal for a face-to-face summit. Moscow has rejected meeting before a deal is agreed and continues to strike and be struck by Ukrainian long-range and drone attacks that have disrupted Russian supply lines and fuel deliveries to Crimea.
Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian targets while reporting gains on several fronts. Russia says it remains committed to its offensive in Donbas and hints at negotiations, but Kyiv says talks depend on Moscow ending aggression. New drone and missile activity signals a widening conflict, with both sides claiming battlefield pressure.
The UK, France and Germany are coordinating on security guarantees for Ukraine as Zelenskyy meets with partners after Russia’s war setbacks. A drone strike near the Chernobyl site underscores ongoing tension, while Kyiv pledges to respond and strengthen European air defence.
Putin has acknowledged economic damage from Ukrainian strikes but says Russia is recovering and that Kyiv's actions are meant to sow confusion. Ukraine claims to have targeted energy hubs and Crimea, while Moscow promises stronger air defences and a tougher response.
Ukrainian forces have retaken territory along the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson fronts, with May gains marking a shift in momentum. Kyiv cites drone strikes and rear-area pressure as key factors, while Russia faces intensified counterattacks and logistical disruptions. International diplomacy continues, with calls for ceasefire talks and humanitarian safeguards.
Ukraine has confirmed that Roman Abramovich traveled to Kyiv to convey messages to the Kremlin about peace prospects. Zelensky says Abramovich offered to relay Kyiv’s position to Putin and sought a face-to-face meeting. Putin has indicated no point in such talks, suggesting any settlement would require long-term guarantees.
The US has approved a memorandum of understanding with Iran to end the US-Israel war, amid mounting domestic and international pressure. Israel faces questions about its security and its standing with Washington as negotiations resume; Republicans and hawks push back while some argue diplomacy could reshape the region.
Oil shipments through the Hormuz Strait have increased since the US and Iran reached a deal, with several tankers moving through and sanctions being waived for a 60-day period. Analysts say traffic is climbing toward prewar patterns, though total exports remain below historic peaks.
U.S. President Donald Trump has offered to help end the Russia-Ukraine war in a nearly 90-minute call with Vladimir Putin and has agreed with Volodymyr Zelenskyy to continue negotiations at next week’s NATO summit in Ankara. Ukraine has struck oil and naval facilities near St. Petersburg, and Russia has responded with heavy missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
Ukraine’s mid-range, Starlink-enabled drones have expanded the front’s reach, pressuring Russia’s supply lines and Crimea’s energy hubs. Russia is countering with camouflage, jamming, and new tactics, while Ukraine trains fighters and pursues domestically produced drones to sustain the push.
CSIS estimates show Russia has suffered about 450,000 killed and Ukraine 125,000–150,000 deaths since 2022. Total casualties exceed 2 million for both sides, with Kyiv and Moscow trading heavy blows as drone and missile strikes continue. The data highlights a grim, grinding war with high losses and strategic strain.
Independent reports that Ukraine’s drone campaign has disrupted Russia’s fuel infrastructure, intensifying shortages and triggering public discontent. Putin insists on continuing the conflict and expanding energy defenses as Moscow confronts a mounting fuel crisis.
Ukraine has struck oil depots and tankers across Russia, triggering a fuel shortage and rationing in multiple regions. Trump pledges Patriot licenses as Kyiv seeks faster domestic production.
Ukrainian drone forces have intensified attacks on Crimea, targeting vessels, fuel facilities and supply routes in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. The campaign aims to choke Moscow’s logistics and energy networks, while Russia experiences fuel shortages and defensive shifts.
Kyiv remains under sustained Russian missile and drone strikes, with casualties and damage reported across multiple districts. Ukrainian officials say air defenses are engaged as civilians seek shelter and rescue operations continue.
Ukrainian forces have targeted logistics hubs and oil facilities in Russia, while Russian strikes hit Ukrainian cities including Kyiv and Odesa. Officials report casualties and disruptions as both sides escalate attacks and sanctions intensify.
A renewed round of Russian strikes targets Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, while Kyiv reports drone and missile attacks, drone production sites, and shelling that underline the ongoing tit-for-tat conflict. Ukrainian leaders have warned of further missile activity in the next 48 hours, as both sides mobilize resources and public support amid a volatile security backdrop.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Russian forces have used ballistic missiles supplied by North Korea in strikes that hit the Zaporizhstal steel plant and other Ukrainian cities, killing at least seven workers and wounding others. Kyiv has also said Moscow is receiving more North Korean missiles and preparing to deploy more North Korean personnel on Russian territory. Allies are being urged to send more air-defence systems.
Ukraine has reported intensified Russian missile and drone attacks across Kyiv and other cities. Zelensky has urged partners to accelerate air-defence deliveries, citing casualties and the mounting strain on Ukraine’s defensive network. NATO and US officials warn the war could intensify this winter.
Iran and Oman are nearing a bilateral arrangement to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. A temporary central corridor could allow normal oil traffic to resume while broader peace talks with the United States and other parties continue. Officials warn that any reopening remains contingent on U.S. actions and broader security guarantees.
Ukraine has handed proposals to US negotiators for a plan to end the war with Russia. Zelenskyy states the US can strengthen Ukraine’s defences, especially air defences, to press Moscow toward peace. Kremlin leaders indicate willingness to negotiate only if Russia’s four claimed regions are fully ceded and root causes addressed. Separately, Washington reports a freed American detainee after a Russian decision to release on humanitarian grounds.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has visited Iturup (Etorofu), one of four islands Japan calls the Northern Territories, touring a fish-processing plant, a hospital and a school. Japan has protested: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi have said the visit is "absolutely unacceptable" and have summoned the Russian ambassador.
Dwindling MQ-9 Reaper stockpiles have escalated concerns over American drone warfare capabilities. The Washington Post reports 45 drones have been lost, with costs exceeding $1.3 billion, as Iran’s actions and the Ukraine conflict shape the battlefield. US officials caution that dwindling munitions are limiting options while drone warfare dominates current tactics.