American think tank providing analysis on modern armed conflicts
Ukrainian officials have reported that Starlink and its military variant Starshield were slowed inside Ukraine in mid‑October, disrupting drone operations. The Wall Street Journal has reported Donald Trump called Elon Musk and asked him to restore full service; Trump has said Musk "put it back" while the White House and SpaceX deny a formal instruction to throttle access.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded toward pre-war levels under US naval protection, while attacks on ships persist and prices stay volatile. Data show roughly 14 million barrels per day through Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, with broader regional routes accounting for more than 40% of exports; Iran continues to threaten and attack vessels.
A multi-day barrage of ballistic missiles hits Kyiv while Ukraine claims it has targeted Russia's shadow fleet and oil facilities. Dozens are confirmed dead or injured in Kyiv and regional strikes. The conflict broadens with renewed attacks on Black Sea shipping and energy infrastructure.
A renewed round of Russian strikes targets Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, while Kyiv reports drone and missile attacks, drone production sites, and shelling that underline the ongoing tit-for-tat conflict. Ukrainian leaders have warned of further missile activity in the next 48 hours, as both sides mobilize resources and public support amid a volatile security backdrop.
Ukraine has reported that North Korea has deployed missile personnel and thousands of troops to western Russia and the Kursk region and that Moscow has used North Korean KN-23/KN-24 missiles in recent strikes. Kyiv, Western analysts and local officials say the transfers increase Russia's ballistic missile capacity at a time when Ukraine lacks high-end air defences.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has ground toward a halt this weekend as a 60‑day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has reached its expiry and negotiations remain stalled. Kpler data shows single‑digit daily transits; Iran has repeated demands that the U.S. lift its naval blockade, remove sanctions and pay reparations, while the U.S. says it can maintain the blockade indefinitely and is planning further economic pressure.
Russian forces have launched large overnight missile-and-drone strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian officials have reported dozens of deaths and widespread damage to residential buildings, a school and the Lithuanian embassy. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said delays in deliveries of anti‑ballistic interceptors have worsened casualties and urged expedited air‑defence support.
Iran and Oman are moving toward a joint, temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran says the arrangement is near finalisation but does not guarantee a full reopening of the strait. U.S. officials anticipate a broader peace framework is still necessary, and regional actors warn that security remains tied to American policy and broader ceasefire talks. Oil markets respond with volatility as talks continue.
Ukraine has handed proposals to US negotiators for a plan to end the war with Russia. Zelenskyy states the US can strengthen Ukraine’s defences, especially air defences, to press Moscow toward peace. Kremlin leaders indicate willingness to negotiate only if Russia’s four claimed regions are fully ceded and root causes addressed. Separately, Washington reports a freed American detainee after a Russian decision to release on humanitarian grounds.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has visited Iturup (Etorofu) in the disputed Kuril Islands, watched Pacific Fleet naval drills including live-fire missile launches, and toured a fish-processing plant, hospital and school. Japan has summoned the Russian ambassador and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi have called the visit "absolutely unacceptable," reaffirming Tokyo's claim to the islands.
Dwindling MQ-9 Reaper stockpiles have escalated concerns over American drone warfare capabilities. The Washington Post reports 45 drones have been lost, with costs exceeding $1.3 billion, as Iran’s actions and the Ukraine conflict shape the battlefield. US officials caution that dwindling munitions are limiting options while drone warfare dominates current tactics.
Ukraine has intensified strikes inside Russia, hitting Wildberries warehouses and other military-linked sites. Moscow reports drone activity and airspace disruptions as Kyiv targets logistics to undermine Moscow’s war effort.
Ukrainian drones strike an Ozon logistics center in Chapayevsk, Samara region, disrupting operations. Moscow says drones have been repelled, while other attacks have damaged facilities and left casualties in several regions. This is the latest in a series of drone strikes targeting Russia’s economic infrastructure amid the broader conflict.
Ukraine has expanded drone strikes against Russia’s e-commerce logistics, broadening from Wildberries to Ozon. Attacks have damaged multiple Ozon hubs across Dagestan, Krasnodar, Adygea and nearby regions, sparking evacuations and sharp declines in Ozon shares. Analysts say the campaign is aimed at disrupting Russia’s fragile wartime economy.
Russian forces have intensified operations around Donetsk’s fortress belt, advancing on Sloviansk and nearby Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk, while Ukraine reshapes its command to defend the region. Western analysts remain skeptical of Russia’s battlefield gains as Kyiv seeks to hold critical strongholds amid ongoing fighting.
Russia has held a three-day parliamentary election from Sept. 18–20 that is set to return a United Russia-dominated State Duma. Most anti-war candidates were barred, the liberal Yabloko party was disqualified from the nationwide list, voting is being held in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine, and Moscow reported large drone attacks and a sustained cyberattack on electronic voting in the capital.
Iran’s economy is under growing pressure as US sanctions intensify and Hormuz disruptions curtail oil revenue. The rial has collapsed, inflation soars, and ordinary Iranians face rising costs as authorities grapple with the impact of war and a tightened blockade.
Kyiv has faced a sharp escalation in Russian drone and missile strikes targeting bridges, energy infrastructure and critical services. City authorities report ongoing disruption as authorities brace for a difficult winter while seeking to bolster energy resilience and defense.
The Saudi-led coalition-backed government is retaking towns near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait amid a broader offensive. Houthis have pushed into Taiz and other western areas, with air support and thousands of troops involved. The operation follows recent gains by the Houthis and marks a renewed phase in Yemen’s civil war.
The Iran-backed Houthis have claimed new strikes against Saudi Arabia, targeting airports and military sites as fighting in Yemen widens. Saudi forces say they are intercepting missiles north of Riyadh, while ground and air operations on Yemen’s western coast intensify. The conflict risks disrupting regional shipping routes amid a broader regional confrontation.
Saudi-led forces have intercepted a ballistic missile fired by Houthi rebels toward Riyadh, officials and residents have reported. Recent Houthi strikes have hit King Khalid and Abha airports, killed foreign residents and wounded dozens, forced flight suspensions and prompted Saudi counterstrikes on Houthi positions in Yemen.
A Saudi-backed government offensive is pushing to recapture areas along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including Bab al-Mandab and Mayun Island, as clashes with Houthi forces intensify. Authorities report dozens of civilian casualties and continued fighting on multiple fronts amid a volatile regional confrontation.
Ukraine is advancing its use of unmanned systems to evacuate wounded troops from the frontline, with heavy-lift hexacopters taking on casualty evacuation roles previously reserved for ground robots. Reports show the first battlefield aerial medevac has occurred, while other units test similar capabilities amid ongoing combat and contested airspace.
Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out several major Russian data centers, disrupting services across Russia as Kyiv’s response to Russian attacks intensifies. Yandex experiences outages, with European-style AI centers and supercomputers affected; Moscow and regional authorities report ongoing disruption containment and retaliation efforts.