American advocacy think tank on war and foreign policy
Between late March and early April 2026, Russia launched multiple large-scale drone and missile attacks across Ukraine, targeting cities including Kyiv, Odesa, Lviv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Nikopol. These strikes damaged civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and residential buildings, killing at least 13 people and injuring dozens. Ukraine's air defenses intercepted most drones. Ukraine retaliated with drone strikes on Russian territory, including the Baltic port of Primorsk. Peace talks remain stalled amid ongoing conflict.
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a 32-hour ceasefire from 4 p.m. on April 11 to midnight on April 12 for Orthodox Easter. Both sides have confirmed compliance despite ongoing tensions and recent attacks. The truce coincides with prisoner exchanges and diplomatic talks, though broader peace negotiations remain stalled amid continued conflict.
Tashiev has been charged in Kyrgyzstan in a move that could destabilize the country’s power-sharing arrangement with Japarov. The charges carry up to 20 years in prison and the trial is to be held behind closed doors with reporting banned.
Ukraine has gained about 116 square kilometres of front-line territory in several sectors, while Russian advances have slowed to a crawl in early 2026. The Institute for the Study of War notes Kyiv’s counter-offensives and Moscow’s use of infiltration tactics to project gains that are not fully controlled.
A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire has been breaking down: both Ukraine and Russia have reported drone, missile and artillery strikes across multiple regions since May 9–11, with civilian casualties in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Rivne, Dnipropetrovsk and elsewhere. Each side is accusing the other of violations while exchanges of large drone attacks and air-defence activity have continued.
Ukrainian drone strikes and falling drone debris have caused fires at multiple Russian oil facilities this month, including an oil terminal in Novorossiysk that has wounded two people and reported damage at Taganrog and Armavir. Kyiv has been carrying out long-range strikes to disrupt Russian oil exports and revenues.
Ukraine is deploying mid-range drone strikes to hit Russian warehouses, transport hubs and command posts up to 120–150 kilometers from the front, a shift that is changing logistics and front-line dynamics. Kyiv says these capabilities are expanding rapidly, with political leaders stressing intensified use this year.
Ukraine’s Third Army Corps has intensified pressure on Russian positions amid reports of fatigue in Moscow’s forces. Kyiv is pursuing a gradual, calculated push along the Donetsk fortress belt while leveraging drone technology and Starlink disruptions to limit Russian advances.
Russia has warned foreign citizens and diplomatic staff to leave Kyiv, saying it is preparing systematic strikes on decision-making centres, command posts and drone facilities after a weekend barrage. EU and several European states have summoned Russia's envoys and said the threats are an unacceptable escalation; diplomats in Kyiv have not publicly departed.
Russian defence spending remains a focal point as Moscow assesses a growing budget deficit amid extended conflict. Finance minister Siluanov has signalled possible cuts and redirection of resources, while state projections flag slower growth this year. Ukraine reports continued strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and cities.
The war in Ukraine is shifting. Ukrainian forces have tightened pressure on Russian positions in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, while Russia faces logistical strains and stalling advances. Kyiv is expanding long-range strikes, stressing Russian rear-area capabilities as Moscow maintains a systematic aerial campaign. Analysts warn that momentum is fragile and the next months will test both sides.
British, French and German ambassadors have met Russian officials to press for direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv after the E3 leaders backed Zelenskyy’s proposal for a face-to-face summit. Moscow has rejected meeting before a deal is agreed and continues to strike and be struck by Ukrainian long-range and drone attacks that have disrupted Russian supply lines and fuel deliveries to Crimea.
Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian targets while reporting gains on several fronts. Russia says it remains committed to its offensive in Donbas and hints at negotiations, but Kyiv says talks depend on Moscow ending aggression. New drone and missile activity signals a widening conflict, with both sides claiming battlefield pressure.
The UK, France and Germany are coordinating on security guarantees for Ukraine as Zelenskyy meets with partners after Russia’s war setbacks. A drone strike near the Chernobyl site underscores ongoing tension, while Kyiv pledges to respond and strengthen European air defence.
Putin has acknowledged economic damage from Ukrainian strikes but says Russia is recovering and that Kyiv's actions are meant to sow confusion. Ukraine claims to have targeted energy hubs and Crimea, while Moscow promises stronger air defences and a tougher response.
Ukrainian forces have retaken territory along the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson fronts, with May gains marking a shift in momentum. Kyiv cites drone strikes and rear-area pressure as key factors, while Russia faces intensified counterattacks and logistical disruptions. International diplomacy continues, with calls for ceasefire talks and humanitarian safeguards.
Ukraine has confirmed that Roman Abramovich traveled to Kyiv to convey messages to the Kremlin about peace prospects. Zelensky says Abramovich offered to relay Kyiv’s position to Putin and sought a face-to-face meeting. Putin has indicated no point in such talks, suggesting any settlement would require long-term guarantees.