ISW in the news again for its battlefield analysis on Ukraine-Russia, April 2026. Brief bio: US think tank founded 2007 by Kimberly Kagan, DC-based.
Between late March and early April 2026, Russia launched multiple large-scale drone and missile attacks across Ukraine, targeting cities including Kyiv, Odesa, Lviv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Nikopol. These strikes damaged civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and residential buildings, killing at least 13 people and injuring dozens. Ukraine's air defenses intercepted most drones. Ukraine retaliated with drone strikes on Russian territory, including the Baltic port of Primorsk. Peace talks remain stalled amid ongoing conflict.
Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a 32-hour ceasefire from 4 p.m. on April 11 to midnight on April 12 for Orthodox Easter. Both sides have confirmed compliance despite ongoing tensions and recent attacks. The truce coincides with prisoner exchanges and diplomatic talks, though broader peace negotiations remain stalled amid continued conflict.
Tashiev has been charged in Kyrgyzstan in a move that could destabilize the country’s power-sharing arrangement with Japarov. The charges carry up to 20 years in prison and the trial is to be held behind closed doors with reporting banned.
Ukraine has gained about 116 square kilometres of front-line territory in several sectors, while Russian advances have slowed to a crawl in early 2026. The Institute for the Study of War notes Kyiv’s counter-offensives and Moscow’s use of infiltration tactics to project gains that are not fully controlled.
A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire has been breaking down: both Ukraine and Russia have reported drone, missile and artillery strikes across multiple regions since May 9–11, with civilian casualties in Kherson, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Rivne, Dnipropetrovsk and elsewhere. Each side is accusing the other of violations while exchanges of large drone attacks and air-defence activity have continued.
Ukrainian forces have been striking multiple Russian oil facilities and terminals this month; falling drone debris has caused a fire at Novorossiysk’s oil terminal, wounding two, and Kyiv has claimed strikes on Sheskharis, Syzran and other refineries as part of a campaign to cut Moscow’s oil revenues.
Ukraine has broadened its use of mid‑range drones to hit Russian warehouses, vehicles, and command posts at roughly 20 to 300 kilometers from the front. Kyiv says these strikes disrupt logistics and air defenses, shifting battlefield dynamics and pressuring Moscow’s rear areas.
Ukraine’s Third Army Corps has intensified pressure on Russian positions amid reports of fatigue in Moscow’s forces. Kyiv is pursuing a gradual, calculated push along the Donetsk fortress belt while leveraging drone technology and Starlink disruptions to limit Russian advances.
Russia has warned of systemic strikes on Kyiv and urged foreign nationals and residents to leave the Ukrainian capital as it signals planned attacks on military sites and drone facilities. The warnings come after recent Russian drone and missile strikes that have killed and injured civilians, with Kyiv assessing its defense needs amid ongoing fighting along the front.