John Curtice heads to the news again as Simon reform chatter hits UK polls; UK politics guru (Strathclyde professor) drilling into voting shifts.
Andy Burnham has won the Makerfield by‑election with nearly 55% of the vote and has returned to Parliament. His victory has opened a clear path for him to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership; Starmer has congratulated Burnham but has said he will fight any leadership contest.
Research has shown UK exports to the EU have fallen sharply since 2016, driven mainly by leaving the single market; chemicals, agrifood, travel and financial services have been hardest hit. Politicians and parties are renewing arguments about a customs union, single-market re-entry or eventual EU membership as London and Brussels prepare a 22 July summit to reset relations.
A British Social Attitudes survey shows Reform UK supporters are defined by conservative cultural views on immigration, transgender rights and diversity. While the party has risen in polls, experts caution there may be a ceiling, with support tied to ideological alignment rather than broad public service dissatisfaction.